Bluetooth stalls as wireless LANs make gains

InTech, Oct 2001 by Felton, Bob

make gains

Though the Bluetooth electronic communication standard appeared poised just one year ago to usher in a new era of electronic connectivity, the global manufacturing slowdown and continued interoperability difficulties have combined to stall the long-- awaited rollout of Bluetooth-enabled products. Microsoft, the 400-pound gorilla of the computer world, has gone so far as to announce that its next-generation Windows release, XP, will not support Bluetooth.

Wireless LANs, meantime, claim more territory every day-including Microsoft's XP operating system.

Few products, waning interest

Bluetooth is an industry-developed standard intended to allow a broad range of electronic devices to communicate wirelessly. When fully realized, virtually all electronics will be able to send messages to one another via radio signals. Your personal digital assistant (PDA), for example, should be able to download information from your car about its condition and beam that to your cellular telephone, which in turn would send the report to your mechanic. You'd get a diagnosis on your pager a few minutes later, which you'd shoot over to the printer.

However, to date, few Bluetooth-- equipped devices have shipped. Further, perhaps because the slowdown has companies focusing on meeting dwindling payrolls instead of buying really cool toys, there doesn't appear to be much demand for them. Additionally, thanks to some highly public demos gone bad, those folks who'd like Bluetooth convenience appear content to bide their time.

At a big Bluetooth show in California early this year, for instance, interoperability problems had signals crashing into one another; some transmissions were received by the wrong devices, sort of like the old comedy skit that has the television remote control opening the neighbor's garage door.

Similarly, at the March CeBit trade show in Hannover, Germany, show organizers tried to create a Bluetooth network on the show floor. Had they succeeded, passersby could have logged on to the network as they strolled by and received business cards and other information electronically. As it happened, the attempt failed, and Bluetooth got yet another black eye.

Jonathan Oakes, chief executive officer of software developer Thin-- AirApps, told Ziff-Davis news that Bluetooth "will go down in history as the buzzword of buzzwords."

It matters what developers think, too, because Bluetooth isn't simply a set of radio frequencies-it's also a set of software protocols, conventions about the way in which data will be formatted for transmission and interpreted when it's received. The software development kits (SDKs) aren't cheap, either; Extended Systems' just-released SDK runs $55,000 per platform.

One poster made this trenchant observation: "It's done. Bluetooth is still-- born. . .... Just what an IS manager needs. Businesses have just spent a fortune rolling out 802.11 [wireless LANs] all over their facilities, and here comes a technology in everybody's PDA that's going to screw up transmission. In that environment, not having Bluetooth is a feature."

Developers and the information systems folks might have their doubts, but the think tankers who peddle expensive market analysis reports are unanimous: Bluetooth is going to be a big success. They don't agree at all, however, about how big or how fast.

Market research firm Frost and Sullivan, for example, predicted there will be more than a billion Bluetooth-- enabled devices produced by 2006. The In-Stat Group said that estimate is too conservative; it believes there will be 1.4 billion Bluetooth devices on the streets by 2005.

Ovum's Jeremy Green, however, is more cautious, saying last May that "Bluetooth will develop on a slow burn rather than the big bang that the current hype suggests." While conceding that the "technology is too affordable and too useful not to succeed," he said he believes "it will take time and real commitment from the industry."

Green predicted it will be at least 2003 before Bluetooth-- enabled devices begin appearing on the market in significant numbers. His firm estimated there will be about 560 million Bluetooth devices in use worldwide in 2006. Noting that Ovum's estimates are much lower than others, he added, "In the current climate, we don't look so silly."

The Bluetooth devices just beginning to trickle into the market are receiving mixed reviews. IT Week just tested a group of notebook computers and came away unimpressed: "Early products seen by IT Week required complex configuration procedures and technical knowledge that would be beyond many users. The wide variety of devices and services supported by Bluetooth means that early user interfaces are complex and may require some training to master. IT managers may be wise to limit the number of Bluetooth peripherals they will initially support or risk help desks being overwhelmed by users attempting to get Bluetooth working."

London-based handheld computer maker Psion decided to delay its rollout of Bluetooth-enabled products, originally scheduled for the latter half of 2001. Other manufacturers are going forward, though spring forecasts that Bluetooth devices would be 2001's must-have Christmas present appear overly optimistic. IBM has released its UltraPort Module, a clip-on that gives Bluetooth functionality to ThinkPad laptops. Hewlett-Packard, Compaq, and Sony will all be shipping Bluetooth devices by late summer. NCR has developed a keypadless information kiosk that users access via a handheld computer to get cash, download e-mail, print maps, make reservations, or order and take delivery of event tickets.