China's Population: New Trends and Challenges

China has been the world's most populous country for centuries and today makes up one-fifth of the world's population. It is no surprise that China's huge population, tumultuous demographic history, and possible future have attracted the world's attention. The country's growing economic strength, combined with its demographic might, ensures it will stay in the limelight for a long time to come.

The country has undergone enormous social, economic, and political changes over the past 50 years, but many of the issues that Chinese society faces today are also closely connected to past demographic change. Because of the rapid and extensive fertility declines in China in the past 30 years, the country's rate of population growth has slowed considerably. The country's population of 1.3 billion in the early 200Os is projected to grow by another 100 million by 2050. India-with its higher fertility levels-is forecast to move ahead of China in total population size by 2035.

China covers about the same geographic area as the United States, although its population is nearly five times greater. In addition, because of rugged mountains in the west and vast desert areas in central China, the population is concentrated within a surprisingly small area.

Rapid population growth during the 20th century helped shaped China's society in myriad ways as China concurrently struggled with the breakdown of its dynastic structure, world wars, civil wars, and the founding of a new nation. The 20th century was a time of momentous changes for the Chinese people, and demographic change was very much a part of their social and political transformation.

This Population Bulletin draws from a growing body of statistical data and research (see Box 1, page 4) to look at some of the demographic changes that have occurred in China's recent past, beginning with a brief introduction to China's demographic history. The Bulletin examines government policies that have significantly affected the country's population, and it looks at some of the current social issues that China faces and how demographic events have affected those issues.

Political Change

China's population has undergone massive change since the founding of the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. When the Chinese Communists formed the new government, there were roughly one-half billion Chinese (see Table 1, page 6). Millions of peasants lived in abject poverty, subject to unstable political conditions. Chinese had endured a civil war, war with Japan, serious flooding, famine, and social and political turmoil. China's new leaders were determined to reduce poverty and stabilize the political situation. The founders of the PRC implemented state control of the economy and all means of production in an effort to reduce poverty and expand access to the country's resources. Mortality and fertility declines after 1950 were remarkable and swift (see Figure 1, page 6). Some of the demographic change can be attributed to the transition from the social, political, and economic unrest of the early 20th century to relative stability. But much of the mortality and fertility change emanated from government actions that directly or indirectly initiated demographic change.

Mortality Decline

China's mortality has declined dramatically over the past 50 years, especially in the early years of the People's Republic. The official death rate in 1953 was 14 deaths per 1,000 people, but it was probably much higher because mortality was chronically underestimated.1 The official death rate had dropped below 8 by 1970 and below 7 by 2000. China's mortality fell in part thanks to increased stability and public order following the turmoil of civil wars, World War II, and partial Japanese occupation in the 1930s and 1940s. The new government began to purchase, store, and distribute grain to alleviate local famines and to develop the national infrastructure so that food could reach those in need. The government was particularly interested in narrowing disparities in income and resources, and it devised programs to redistribute land and other resources to help ensure access by even the poorest citizens. The new government also began to develop massive public health programs. Early programs focused on relatively inexpensive goals and campaigns-such as local environmental clean-up programs and training programs for local health personnel-that contributed to lower mortality. China's mortality decline was interrupted at several points by temporary but often severe disruptions tied to political, economic, or social changes. The most notable was the Great Leap Forward.

The Great Leap Forward

In 1958, the Chinese government launched the Great Leap Forward, a massive effort to rapidly increase agricultural and industrial production. The program was a colossal failure and, ironically, caused one of the largest famines in human history. The Chinese government kept the details of the era secret for many years, releasing some data only in the 1980s. Demographers and others who pieced together the available information have estimated that more than 30 million people died between 1958 and 1961 as a result of the Great Leap Forward.2 Infants were especially vulnerable. Infant mortality rates spiked in 1958 and again in 1961.3 Adult mortality surged in 1960. As the country recovered, mortality levels declined and life expectancy at birth increased-from 35 years in 1949 to 72 years in 2001.4