Decision Dynamics, Inc. - Analysis Applications for Professionals

Logistics Spectrum, Oct-Dec 2008

Louis Edward Alfeld, ScD. founded Decision Dynamics, Inc. (DDI) in 1979 to apply system dynamics modeling methods to improve management decision-making. DDI builds and employs sophisticated simulation modeling applications that quantify the complex cost, performance and schedule tradeoffs among competing "what-if?" scenarios. These applications utilize advanced proprietary techniques to bring the capabilities of system dynamics (SD) to the program analysis world.

These tools quantify the impacts for any mix of management policies, resource constraints and mission requirements for major weapons systems. DDI's software applications provide the next step in management support analysis tools by combining the principles of traditional project management methods with the unique features of the system dynamics simulation methodology.

Software Tools and Analysis. DDI has established a unique leadership position in the field of "what-if?" forecasting and analysis by using SD methods to underpin its simulation applications. SD offers a powerful modeling technology for leapfrogging the shortcomings of traditional statistical and spreadsheet analytical tools that often rely too heavily on large amounts of accurate data for their results. In contrast, SD models first capture the underlying causal mechanisms that drive system behavior and then populate the models with available data. The discipline of cause-and-effect logic supports "what-if?" projections that trace the consequences of management options and alternative assumptions.

DDI is currently applying two of its modeling tools to address management concerns within the DoD and commercial environments. These successes have established FleetSight(TM) (life cycle support model) and Workflow(TM) (process model) as successful commercial DDI simulation modeling tools.

FleetSight(TM), a program cost and analysis decision tool, replicates the causal logic of real-world relationships and captures a wealth of data, both hard and soft. FleetSight(TM) users define "what-if?" scenarios to include alternative management decisions, alternative assumptions about system relationships and/or alternative data points from different sources. Unique to FleetSight(TM) is an analytical structure that allows for analysis of equipment impacts, such as availability, and cost projections, to be explored in a single, unified analytical context, along with the non-material alternatives that must be addressed. Key capabilities resulting from the SD foundation are unique methodologies to address the impact of aging, use/abuse, and changes to mission environment or profile.

Strategic studies during budget formulation and program design quantify the total ownership cost of alternative systems or combinations of systems over one or more decades. Tactical studies show how individual programs can best conform to limited budgets and changing schedules. Operational applications continue to forecast the impact of decision options on readiness, including availability, cost, maintenance methodologies, facility capacity, manpower and training.

At a strategic level, FleetSight(TM) was used by Lockheed Martin/Northrop Grumman in costing their various implementation schedules for their successful proposal for the United States Coast Guard's (USCG) Deepwater program. It was also used by the USCG to develop their "Legacy Asset Baseline," which covered the presumed costs of the current USCG infrastructure, to include ships, aircraft and shore facilities involved in that solicitation.

WorkFlow(TM), a process management analysis tool, offers users the ability to plan and manage large, complex projects and realistically simulate their performance over time. Unlike conventional tools, WorkFlow(TM) incorporates the management processes that control the complex interactions among many interrelated production activities.

With the simulation capability, users can determine the state of the project at any point in time for a project's duration. Moreover, users can alter project plans quickly with "what-if?" assumptions, and re-run simulations, gaining new insights into why the changes produce better or worse results than the original project plan. By defining a series of "what-if?" scenarios, users can continue comparing the relative impact of many different variables and management policies on system behavior. For example, alternative work schedules, task sequences, labor resources and problem areas could all be quickly tested in a search for the best solution.

The WorkFlow(TM) model traces the consequences of cost and schedule of such "whatif?" scenarios as information delays, work quality, design/production changes and personnel shifts. The model assists program managers and design engineers in planning and managing effective resource allocation among multiple tasking within integrated product and process development teams.

End-to-end Analytical Capability. Using both FleetSight(TM) and WorkFlow(TM), managers can look at prioritization of resources across the spectrum of potential alternatives, from material changes to the product, to changes to the supply chain and support philosophy, through repair process modifications.