An economy in turmoil

ASEE Prism, Sep 2001 by Brindley, David

ENGINEERING GRADS ARE STILL FINDING GOOD JOBS. ALTHOUGH IT TAKES A LITTLE LONGER AND THEY'RE FIELDING EWER OFFERS THAN LAST YEAR.

In The Picture of Dorian Gray, the moral fantasy novel by Oscar Wilde, the title character retains his youth and handsome looks over the years while a hidden portrait of him records every blemish and evil deed, morphing into someone who looks truly hideous.

More and more, Wilde's classic pact-with-the-devil tale is a metaphor for the New Economy, which was supposed to have replaced the ups and downs of economic cycles of yore. There are clear signs that the Old Economy is rearing its ugly head. And it's not a pretty picture.

Over the past year, U.S. manufacturers have laid off more than 675,000 employees; dying dot-coms alone have put an estimated 100,000 people out of work. The longest economic expansion on record may have come to an end. Last June, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of business cycles, reported that there is now "the possibility that a recession began recently."

It's clear that high tech, hit with a one-two punch of a broader slowdown and retrenchment in the telecom sector, has suffered the most. But the effects of a slowing economy are rippling through every sector of the economy-making it a little tougher for new engineering grads.

Just ask Nathan Campeau what a difference a year can make. Last fall the bright, enthusiastic and selfassured civil engineering senior at George Washington University in Washington, D.C. approached his job search with high expectations. And why not? After all, he had seen previous graduates garner offers by the bucketful and had heard rumors of signing bonuses that would make non-techies bitter with envy.

"When my friends in the class of 2000 applied to companies, they were given an interview on the spot." Campeau says. "Basically the interview was just to make sure that they weren't going to blow the place up, because every place needed warm bodies."

As such, the valedictorian thought he had it made when he started sending out resumes. But as Campeau quickly learned, when high-tech fever catches a serious cold, everyone sneezes. Campeau's thirty-odd job inquiries led to only a handful of interviews, and even fewer offers.

"I didn't get as many job offers as I would've liked, but I did get a job offer for the job that I wanted," Campeau explains. That was with Accenture, which included a signing bonus and a position in Minneapolis, his hometown, starting in July. He was all set-or so he thought.

In June, Campeau learned that Accenture had pushed back his starting date until as late as next February. Three days later, due to a slowdown in client spending and a decrease in its attrition rate, the company announced layoffs. At that point, Campeau decided that it wasn't such a good idea to start his career with a company that was laying off people. "When I spoke with Accenture and turned down the offer, their response was "Oh, good," Campeau says with a shrug.

DOWNTURN'S UPSIDE

Even so, engineering schools across the country are actually taking the slowing economy in stride. Most schools contacted for this article reported only a mild impact on job prospects for their students. Some even welcomed the cooling off as a chance to step back from the hurly-burly pace of a roaring economy.

"The overheated technology economy can create short-term distortions that are hard to deal with," says Dick Yue, associate dean of engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "A much more reasoned growth rate is better. So the slowing economy is a positive development in that we can think in the medium- to long-term and allocate resources more wisely." Rick McClintic, associate director of Penn State's engineering co-op, says that there were fewer signing bonuses this year and stock options weren't as attractive, but there were still good options for openminded students who didn't wait until the last minute to start looking for jobs. "Students are focusing more on traditional engineering companies rather than dot-- coms and consulting, because a lot of those opportunities dried up." In general, McClintic says that engineers are the most aggressively recruited students at Penn State.

Marva Gumbs, executive director for George Washington University's career center, says that technical fields continue to have an overwhelming need for new talent. "Technology is continuing to grow-it's not stopping. The perks were not as generous as they were in the past, but I think, quite frankly, that some of them were over the top." Gumbs points out that the federal government is anticipating a big loss of the baby boomer workforce by 2005, so it's looking to colleges for new talent. "The federal government could become the new big employer," Gumbs says.

As for job prospects, many firms anticipate hiring in the fall. Job fairs during the coming semester at universities across the country are booked to capacity. And while companies could cancel if the economy doesn't improve, their plans for on-campus recruiting belie any reservations they may have in this economic climate. They want to be prepared for when the economy turns around.