Sitting out the recession in grad school

ASEE Prism, Apr 2002

Graduating seniors and grad students nearing completion of their degrees are facing a much tougher world than the one they left behind for academia. A few years ago, the United States was still in the middle of a technology-generated boom, unemployment was at historic lows, and jobs were plentiful. But all booms go bust eventually, and the recession that took hold last year has dried up many job opportunities. Michigan State University's Collegiate Employment Research Institute predicts that the job market in the 2001-02 school year will shrivel 6 percent to 13 percent from the previous year for graduating seniors. For advanced degree holders, there will be 20 percent fewer jobs, it says. But wait, it gets worse. The National Association of Colleges and Employers says there's less money available, as well. Its Job Outlook 2002 Update says 36.7 percent of employers will offer college grads signing bonuses in the 2001-02 year, down from 55.3 percent in 2000-01. Students in the West will find things particularly tight. Only a quarter of employers in western states plan to offer bonuses, down from 62.2 percent last year. Notes Camille Luckenbaugh of the NACE: "A year or two ago, when there were more jobs than graduates to go around, many employers made signing bonuses part of their recruitment package." But that's history now.

Given the chilly job market, it's not surprising that many seniors are opting instead to chill out on campus for a few more years. The American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers says there is a huge amount of anecdotal evidence from its members that applications to graduate schools are on the increase. "That is our impression,"says Barmack Nassirian, the group's associate executive director. The one exception: medical schools. That may be because in today's tough economic climate, students are balking at taking on the huge loans needed to attend tried school.

A spot check of a few tech schools around the country found applications on the increase at all of them, but at varying degrees. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, applicants for the current school year rose 2.25 percent from the previous year to 13,580. At Georgia Tech, applications were up 12.6 percent, and Virginia Tech had a 10 percent increase. At Caltech, the jump was more stark: 4,550 applications, an increase of 41 percent Moreover, unlike the other schools, Caltech is already keeping track of the number of applications for the coming school year, and it sees the trend continuing. As of early February, it had already received 3,700 applications for next fall, and the filing deadine is still months away. Nassirian says the flood of applications will likely fuel another ongoing trend: allowing schools to raise the entrance bar to graduate schools. It's a seller's market.