A NEW OPTION

The stock market may be unpredictable, but the demand for engineers who can develop software that predicts returns is anything but. By Thomas K. Grose

MOST INVESTORS would find a crystal ball useful for mitigating risk: It wouldn't hurt to know in advance which stocks are going to soar and which are doomed to plummet, or the price of soybeans and sow bellies three months hence. Engineers are likely to look askance at crystal balls, however, especially when there are more accurate ways to channel the future. In recent years, a new breed of Wall Street soothsayers-financial engineers-has assembled a variety of quantitative techniques based on computer models, advanced math formulas, and financial theory that predict returns and assess risk.

When quantitative technology proved its effectiveness and began reshaping Wall Street more than a decade ago, the industry often turned to industrial or operations research engineers to design new investment tools: derivatives, which are complex financial products whose value is derived from other financial products, often futures; and arbitrage, an investing method that exploits market inefficiencies. These tools were put to use in hedge funding, as the engineers sought to reduce risk and deliver positive returns regardless of market conditions.

Following the success of these early financial engineers, a growing number of universities began offering master's degrees in financial engineering. By one estimate, there are 40 to 50 such programs today. Most are multidisciplinary programs that combine engineering, math and statistics, and business and economic courses.

Typical of these new financial engineering programs is the University of Michigan's (UM), based in its College of Engineering but run jointly with its School of Business and its School of Literature, Science, and the Arts. The growth of Michigan's financial engineering program has been swift, paralleling the rapid advancement of quantitative technologies in financial services. Michigan launched the program in 1997 with six students; today 95 are enrolled. In 2000, it graduated 20 students; this year, it expects to graduate 65.

UM's degree grew out of its industrial and operations engineering program. "That's the closest thing we have to a business school in engineering," explains Stephen Director, dean of the College of Engineering. Because the engineering college had a long history of running interdisciplinary programs, while Michigan's business school was less quantitative than most, "it made sense for it to grow out of here," Director says.

Princeton also runs a successful new program based in its six-year-old operations research and financial engineering department and run jointly with its business school. With 30 students currently enrolled, "We feel like we are blazing new ground, creating a new engineering discipline," says Erhan Cin-lar, department head. Columbia University's industrial engineering and operations research department also runs its program with the business school, and has 65 students enrolled. At some schools, such as Stanford and Columbia, the program is called financial mathematics and is based in the math department. At others, including the University of California-Berkeley and MIT, it's anchored in the business school.

Roots: Square and Academic

STEPHEN POLLOCK, director of Michigan's program, is skeptical of programs that are primarily financial math or focused on empirical business theories. The engineering per-spective is the glue that binds the complex formulas and economic theories together, he insists. "It is financial engineering," Pollock says, stressing the e-word. Indeed, Director adds, the finance industry began hiring engineering graduates because people with the skills to devise complex financial instruments "were not coming out of the business schools."

Problem solving and an ability to deal with uncertainty, Pollock and Cinlar say, are key engineering skills that financial engineers must learn. "To me," Cinlar explains, "an engineer is someone who has a problem and solves it. We concentrate on the problem, and we bring and use whatever tools we need to solve it." In the world of finance, helpful tools include modeling, complex equations, and such engineering problem-solving techniques as optimization and simulation. Guillermo Gallego, chairman of Columbia's industrial engineering and operations research department, says mathematicians too often look for abstract elegant solutions, while engineers seek to remedy real-world problems. As for uncertainty, Cinlar notes: "Most peo-pie want to avoid risk. We love it. And people are willing to pay us to show them how to avoid it."

Students attracted to financial engineering tend to be career-oriented -and interested in a fatpaycheck. "There are many students who want this degree, not for the education, but for the perks," Pollock says. Gallego agrees. "They are bright students who like math but want it relevant." Pollock says some also view it as an M.B.A. shortcut, "a way to get into finance without the years of experience required for an M.B.A."