Post Marcos Politics: A Geographical and Statistical Analysis of the 1992 Presidential Election

Journal of Third World Studies, Spring 1999 by Biedzynski, James

Lande, Carl H. Post Marcos Politics: A Geographical and Statistical Analysis of the 1992 Presidential Election. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1996.171 pp.

The Post-Marcos era of Philippine history has been a turbulent one. Coups, natural disasters, expulsion of the American bases and political violence have been some of its hallmarks. Over a decade after the Marcoses fled the Philippines for American exile, a permanent system has yet to emerge to replace Martial Law and dictatorship. To some extent, the Philippines drifts, hoping to attain prosperity and also praying it will not have a second Marcos. The progress made by the Ramos administration has not dispelled all the ghosts and goblins in the Philippines' attic. At this point, observers have no idea who will run the Philippine government a year or two from now.

Carl Lande, a distinguished Philippine political scientist, has made a detailed study of the 1992 Philippine Presidential election, and what its results reveal about the Philippines. What it shows is a political system in flux, beyond dictatorship, but not yet a fully formed system that will definitely endure through time. The Philippines is a sprawling archipelago, made up of numerous ethnic groups who speak dozens of languages. Unless Filipinos communicate via English, a politician who wants a nationwide following must speak at least several languages. Filipino leaders frequently find strong followings in the region they originated from. Nonetheless, can a Filipino Presidential aspirant reach across ethnic, regional and linguistic lines to become a truly national candidate?

Fidel Ramos won the 1992 election , defeated six opponents and was elected with a 24% plurality. His victory was due to support from outgoing President Corazon Aquino, his role in the 1986 Revolution, and the fact he was able to appeal to several regions of the Philippines: Central Luzon, Mindanao and the Central Visayas. Had there been only two or three candidates, Ramos might have gathered many more votes, but as it happened, his mandate was very thin. In short, Ramos represented the incumbent government, with the promise of better performance.

Miriam Defensor-Santiago finished second with 20% of the vote and maintained she actually won the election. Blasting politicians and depicting herself as a champion of honesty in government, her appeal was to the educated and university students. She did well in Manila and the Western Visayas. Nonetheless, she lacked a political base which relegated her as the intellectual's candidate. Questions about her emotional health further hampered her campaign. Had Defensor-Santiago possessed a strong political base, she could have been a formidable candidate with the potential for inaugurating a period of reform which the Philippines desperately needs.

Ramon Mitra was once perceived as the front runner in the 1992 Presidential election. Possessing a distinguished record, the fact he was a politician of the "old school" (Trapo in Filipino political jargon) ultimately hurt him. Mitra received 15% of the vote. To my mind, Mitra represents the disenchantment Filipinos now have with their leaders. In more tranquil times, he would have enjoyed much larger opportunities. After two decades of Marcos, however, traditional style politicians are suspect, no matter what their abilities and character.

Other candidates such as Eduardo Cojuangco, Salvador Laurel, Jovito Salonga and Imelda Marcos demonstrate how some candidates might excite small portions of the electorate but in the end have only a lesser impact on politics. Cojuangco, a former Marcos crony and former king-maker garnered support from his home province of Tarlac, Ilocos and Mindanao, but only received 18% of the vote. During the early 1980s, such an outcome would have dismayed Filipinos. Laurel, the son of a former President, longtime Marcos opponent and Aquino's Vice-President, fared very poorly. Winning 3% of the vote, it can be said Filipinos are reluctant to entrust their nation to his leadership.

Salonga, who received 10% of the vote, was also a longtime Marcos opponent and chaired the Commission on Good Government, but his age and lack of effectiveness relegated his support to the far left fringes of Filipino voters. Imelda Marcos, who received 10% of the vote, once wielded a great deal of power in the Philippines and was disliked by many. Her return to the Philippines, candidacy for the Presidency and election to Congress symbolizes how quickly Filipinos can bury the hatchet and admit former foes back into the national fold. Although her chances of ever becoming President are virtually nil, Imelda Marcos still strikes a last hurrah with former Marcos supporters and her native Eastern Visayas.

Lande is concerned about the future of Philippine politics and the longevity of Filipino democracy as the Marcos era fades into history. He laments the failure of a new system to assert itself or truly durable nationwide parties to emerge. Also, regionalism remains strong to the detriment of a national identity. One can argue the Philippines is not yet a fully formed nation, but rather a number of societies within a political entity called the Philippines. Although the archipelago is now a century beyond its Revolution of 1896-1902, it still has a long way to go in this regard.