AZERBAIJAN DESCENDING INTO THE THIRD WORLD AFTER A DECADE OF INDEPENDENCE

Journal of Third World Studies, Spring 2004 by Rasizade, Alec

The whole picture of social inequality and blunt lawlessness is aptly described by Bakuvians with the Russian expression "bespredel" (unrestricted iniquity, pandemonium). Azerbaijan is not merely an autocratic state, it is a de facto oligarchy (or, strictly speaking, plutocracy) of the rich protected by an authoritarian regime. Remarkably, there is little of the anger or resentment one might expect. There is only resignation and sadness. "Things are terrible," people say, then add, "we'll have to see what happens."

In these conditions, it is not surprising that Azerbaijan's population is fleeing their independent motherland physically and abandoning it mentally, fairy tales of oil-boom prosperity notwithstanding. Azerbaijan has suffered proportionally the largest decline in population of all former Soviet republics. According to the 1999 census, Azerbaijan's population currently numbers eight million. Russian researcher A.Arsenyev has claimed that the official results were fabricated, and the country's current population cannot possibly exceed four million.9 Indeed, the leadership of Azerbaijan has a vested interest in downplaying the extent of the outmigration and the social discontent it implies.

The previous USSR census conducted in 1989 had counted the population of Azerbaijan at seven million. In the course of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 1988-1994, the entire Armenian population of Azerbaijan, numbering about half a million, were driven out. A similar number of Russians, Jews and others left in the early 1990s. Dr. Arsenyev concludes that as a result of the flight of non-indigenous population, Azerbaijan lost no less than 1.2 million people.

But in addition, following the radiant "Deal of the Century" signed in 1994, which has pledged billions of dollars in foreign investment, millions of native Azeris have also left their country, moving mainly to Russia and Turkey. According to Russian statistics, the number of Azeris resident in Russia has reached 2.5 million. Specifically, the Azeri population in Moscow and its vicinity is now 1.2 million, compared with 21,000 in 1989. The Russian scholar estimates total emigration of Azeris in recent years at no less than three million. He thus deduces that, allowing for modest natural increase, Azerbaijan's population has shrunk by half during the decade of independence.

Leaders of opposition parties charged the government with inflating the census figures to conceal this loss of men and, in smaller numbers, women (who prostitute themselves in the Persian Gulf emirates). Young men starting around age 20 are fleeing the republic. There are no official statistics on this problem since the government denies it exists. But everyone has a story of a relative or acquaintance working in Russia or Turkey, and fewer in Europe or America. They send money home (about $2 billion annually, twice the size of state budget)10 when they can, but have no plans to return until "things get better." Privately, intellectuals worry about the future of Azeris as a nation: "The women are alone in the countryside; there are no men in some villages."11