Evans & Novak

Human Events, Dec 24, 1999 by Evans, Rowland, Novak, Robert

Senate 2000. There will be 33 Senate contests in 2000. The following analysis looks at nine of those races. More will be covered next week.

California: Millionaire Silicon Valley software developer Ron Unz's (R.) announcement that he will not run bodes well for Rep. Tom Campbell (R.). Unz's candidacy threatened to divide the moderate support Campbell hopes to secure. San Diego Supervisor and conservative Bill Horn (R.), considered second to Campbell, has gone on the attack against him. Orange County Banking Consultant J.G. Gough, and State Sen. Ray Haynes (R.) also are in the running. Campbell will prevail in the Golden State Republican primary, and then battle Sen. Diane Feinstein (D.) for the political center.

Probable Democratic Retention.

Delaware: Democratic Gov. Tom Carper leads incumbent Sen. William Roth (R.). But Roth was in a similar position in 1994, when he launched an effective campaign to defeat then-Atty. Gen. Charles Oberly (D.) in a close race. Roth can draw on his experience and powerful position as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Carper's popularity is neck-and-neck with Roth's and he would win if the race were held today.

Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Florida: The seat of retiring Sen. Connie Mack (R.) will be difficult for the GOP to hold. On the Democratic side, state Insurance Commissioner and ex-Rep. Bill Nelson is the lone contender, giving him an edge over his GOP rivals. Conservative Rep. Bill McCollum (R.) and Education Commissioner Tom Gallagher (R.), a moderate, are poised for a bruising primary battle.

Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Indiana: As a staple in Indiana politics, incumbent Sen. Richard Lugar (R.) is a political powerhouse who faces no serious opposition. Lawyer David Johnson (D.), though he has impressive credentials and ties to Gov. Frank O'Bannon (D.), won't be able to obstruct Lugar's certain path to victory.

Sure GOP Retention.

Massachusetts: Plymouth County District Atty. Michael Sullivan (R.) will vie for the seat of incumbent Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (R.). Early polls show Kennedy with a considerable lead oyer Sullivan. That lead will narrow, but, currently, Kennedy is showing no signs of weakness.

Sure Democratic Retention.

Maryland: A frequent criticism of fourterm incumbent Sen. Paul Sarbanes (D.) is that he has no legislative record, but that won't be, enough to defeat him, as he faces a lackluster GOP field. Attorneys Robin Flicker and Paul Rappaport, as well as conservative journalist Ken Timmerman, will spar in a Republican primary.

Sure Democratic Retention.

Michigan: Democrats believe they can upset incumbent Sen. Spence Abraham (R.) with Rep. Debbie Stabenow (D.). Stabenow is recognized as shrewd campaigner, and has run statewide twice. But Abraham, as a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee and of the state party, knows the fine art of grassroots campaigning. With the support of popular Gov. John Engler (R-), Abraham could eke out a victory. But if the election were held today, Stabenow would win.

Leaning Democratic Takeover

Minnesota: As one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, Sen. Rod Grams (R.) faces a tough uphill battle. Though embarrassed by continuing personal problems, Grams' prospects are not as dim as is perceived. Grams has near unanimous; support from the grassroots GOP (last week the Republican Central Committee gave him a 10-minute standing ovation), and the Democratic primary is crowded.

Ex-Rep. Tan Penny (D.), whose prolife views may jeopardize his chances, and well-funded Attorney Mike Ciresi (D.) are viable, but both have opted to skip the state convention and go straight to the primary. Former U.S. Atty. David Lillehaug (D.) will get the nod at the convention, which will make for a tough primary battle in September. That gives Grams a fighting chance.

Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Missouri: Incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft (R.) faces the fight of his life against Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan (D.) next year. The campaign got off to an ugly start when Carnahan accused Ashcroft of racism when he opposed the nomination to the federal bench of State Supreme Court Judge Ronnie White, who is black. Ashcroft unearthed a blackface picture of Carnahan in the 60s, and effectively neutralized the issue. Carnahan also damaged his support with Catholic voters when he opposed the Democratic state legislature on banning partial-birth abortion. Ashcroft-Carnahan will be a brawl, but Ashcroft's grassroots conservative support gives him an edge.

Leaning GOP Retention.

The special report appears exclusively in HUMAN EVENTS. For subscription information on their Evans-Novak Political Report, call 800-789-5367.