Dubuque could deliver or bedevil Bush

Human Events, Feb 4, 2000 by Jeffrey, Terence P

Four years ago on the night of the Iowa Caucuses I was invited on CNN's "Crossfire" to face off against Republican strategist Mike Murphy.

I went there assuming CNN had invited Murphy and me because their last-minute polling indicated that my candidate, Pat Buchanan, and Murphy's candidate, Lamar Alexander, were going to beat expectations that day.

Everyone expected fro hag Bob Dole to win. But someone was going to emerge that night as his pal challenger. Would it be the conservative, Buchanan, or the moderate, Lamar?

Before "Crossfire" started, CNN told us they were going to project the winner, on the air, right after the show Naturally, I stuck around to see who it would be. Soon, I saw CNN political analyst Bill Schneider scrambling into the studio with a worried look on his face.

I figured that was good news for Buchanan.

New Republicans

Finally, Bernie Shaw announced, "CNN is declaring Bob Dole, the senior senator from the nearby state of Kansas, the winner tonight in the 1996 Iowa Republican caucuses, and w are b ing :tat declaration on entrance polling done as Iowans across this state went into their caucuses to state their preferences on the candidates and the issues. We show that Dole is clearly leading at this hour followed by Pat Buchanan and Lmar Alexander."

But Schneider added: "The question is, is he going to win by a knockout, or is he going to win a technical victory on points? That we have to find out."

Then Shaw hedged his bets: "CNN, based on entrance polling information, projects that Bob Dole is the winner of the Iowa caucuses tonight, followed by Pat Buchanan and Lamar Alexander, and this is not necessarily how these men are going to finish. What we cannot give you right now is the percentages separating the candidates."

Maybe I am an optimist, but I still believed Buchanan had a chance to win outright. Back at our headquarters, the calls coming in from precinct captains reinforced my enthusiasm. In Dubuque, our people said, there was a magical scene: The fire marshals had closed the roads leading to Hempstead High School, the main Republican caucus site, because of an overflowing crowd. Voters were trooping in over the ice brandishing Buchanan signs. A similar scene was reported in Dyersville, the town just west of Dubuque, where Field of Dream was filmed.

Yet, none of the early reported vote totals were coming from Dubuque. I drove over to the Republican caucus headquarters to see if I could find out why. Ken Bodie, an Iowa native, then with PBS, was standing under a large map of Iowa on which party officials were marking off the precincts, county by county, as they phoned in their tallies. Most of the urban precincts had already reported-showing Dole with a narrow lead. But not one of the more than 40 precincts in Dubuque had been scored.

Bodie noted this anomaly with an arched eyebrow. Dubuque is Buchanan's strongest county, I told him. If it had reported first, maybe Dole would be playing catch up.

The next morning, the Dubuque Telegraph Herald reported what had happened. Buchanan had beaten Dole by more than 2.5 to I in the biggest presidential caucus in the history of the county.

"Pat Buchanan won Dubuque County's Republican caucus Monday night as record turnout surpassed all expectations at Dubuque Hempstead High School," said the Telegraph Herald "A record turnout also appeared at the Republican caucus in Dyersville."

The mood was captured by Dubuque voter Polly Mason, when she walked into the Hempstead High auditorium. "Is this a Buchanan rally?" she asked.

Local Republican Party officials marked with glee the unprecedented number of Democrats who crossed over to attend a Republican caucus. This is how the Times Herald reported it:

"Rod Blum, chairman of the Dubuque County Republican Party, said Ins organizers planned on about 1,200 people showing up at Hempstead, and he figures almost three times that many showed up.

"When it became clear the auditorium wouldn't hold everyone, the organizers started moving people to both the cafeteria and the gymnasium.

"Most individual caucuses didn't even begin their business until 9 p.m.-two-hours later than planned.

'Many people left before the business even started.

"'This is a joke. This is a mess,' said Diane Hentges, of Dubuque, who stayed until the end.

"Blum credited Buchanan for the large turnout.

"'This is a shocker,' he said, noting, 'So many people are registering Republican."'

The Rev. John Hulsizer, pastor of Dubuque's Protestant Church of the Nazarene, told the Telegraph Herald that "the Catholic pro-life vote came across for Buchanan because they had nothing to do at the Democratic caucuses."

Pro-abortion Bill Clinton, of course, won those caucuses.

So what eventually happened to all the Dubuque Democrats Pat Buchanan brought into the GOP that night?

The Republican establishment branded them "extremists." Dole, equivocated on their most cherished issues. The GOP leadership refused to allow their candidate (or anyone who believed in what they believed in) to speak at the Republican convention. Instead they were offered Christie Todd Whitman, a pro-abortion plutocrat.