Kyoto treaty imposes steep costs on USA

Human Events, Apr 14, 2000 by D'Agostino, Joseph A

Global Warming Pact Could Extract $1, 740 From Each American Household

With its primary American proponent now the Democratic nominee for President, the Kyoto global warming treaty-with its attendant economic and social dangers-could be ratified as early as next year.

At an April 3 conference in the Rayburn House Office Building organized by former Sen. Malcolm Wallop's (R.Wyo.) Frontiers of Freedom, speaker after speaker detailed the grave global economic threat posed by the accord.

The treaty, negotiated in Kyoto, Japan, imposes strict limits on carbon dioxide emissions by First World nations. But it completely exempts such large developing nations as China and Mexico.

Carbon dioxide is produced by burning any organic substance-such as oil, gasoline, coal or wood.

Housing Costs to Rise 19%

At Kyoto, different countries were assigned quotas for their carbon dioxide output. The United States was told to set its emissions at 7% less than what they were in 1990.

"This treaty is based on immature science, costs too much, and will do nothing to solve the problem it's supposed to," said Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R.-Wis.), chairman of the House Science Committee. Sensenbrenner noted a lack of scientific evidence showing that human-generated emissions of carbon dioxide contribute significantly to global warming (see story below).

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), a branch of the Department of Energy, has predicted that Kyoto would cost the United States 4.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per year from 2008 to 2012, and $240 billion a year in GDP by 2030.

"According to the EIA," said Sensenbrenner, "it would cost $1,740 per household in higher energy prices. Electricity up 86%, gas up 66 cents a gallon, natural gas up 147%."

This inspired the administration to do "another analysis." This time the President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) found that Kyoto would cost only .01% of GDP a year from 2008 to 2012.

"Sadly, rising energy prices are not unwelcome to some in this administration, including the Vice President," said Sensenbrenner, pointing to Al Gore's advocacy in his book, Earth in the Balance, for higher taxes on fossil fuels to discourage consumption.

If Kyoto is enforced, said Sensenbrenner, "energy-intensive jobs will be lost to nonparticipating nations like China."

Dr. Margot Thorning, director of research for the American Council for Capital Formation, said, "Most estimates say Kyoto will cost 2 to 4% a year in GDP growth." She noted that a relatively small percentage, compounded over time, results in a huge loss in prosperity.

"According to one study, by 2010, Kyoto will trigger a rise in food costs of 9%, medical care of 11%, and housing of 19%," she said. "Real wage growth could be depressed by 5 to 10% a year. Two million people could lose their jobs. . . . People will have less money to spend on health care and other things because they will have to spend more on gas and anything else that produces greenhouse gases."

"If developing countries are exempted from this treaty, industry and jobs will flee there," said Wallop. "ff they are not exempted, they will be unable to develop their economies and we will keep them down forever."

Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy, said Kyoto could affect national security. "If the Department of Defense has to reduce its emissions," he said, "that means less flying hours to train pilots, less time for soldiers to train in tanks, less steaming time for ships: '

"Would we have to buy chits to allow us greater emissions in order to go to war?" he asked.

Myron Ebell, director of global warming and international environmental policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said after the conference, "Environmentalists plan to spend $35 million this summer on an ad campaign about global warming. I think we're in a very dangerous time. Will George W. Bush be susceptible to their pressure?"

Sen. Bob Smith (R.-N.H.), the new chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, did not attend the conference," but later told HUMAN EVENTS he was willing to concede that man might be warming the planet, a conclusion disputed by many conservative experts. "I think we can set a reasonable cap on CO2 emissions," he said. "But we need to be sure that we don't destroy our industry. I don't like Kyoto because the science does not justify such a radical move. And it doesn't bring in Third World countries."

Nonetheless, he added, "we can set a reasonable cap soon and let the science come in. It seems likely that our emissions are affecting the atmosphere, but we don't know how much. We need more science."

Smith said that his committee would probably hold hearings on such a can and on the Kyoto treaty next year.