Florida redistricting may yield big GOP gains

Human Events, Mar 25, 2002 by Gizzi, John

To hear many Republican activists tell it, party leaders in various states have not done a good job of protecting GOP interests in this year's reapportionment of congressional districts.

In two large states-Ohio and Texas-where the GOP holds governorships and an advantage in both houses of the legislature, Republican chieftains have "punted" and accepted new district maps that promise far fewer prospective gains than might have been had they not yielded to Democrats. (See Bob Novak's discussion of the Ohio map, page 9).

The same GOP skeptics contrast these outcomes with the hardball that Democrats have played in states where they dominate the governorships and legislatures. In Georgia, for example, Democrats forced Republican Representatives John Linder and Bob Barr to compete for a single seat and created at least two other districts where Democrats are rated betterthan-even money to elect new congressman.

Such "bipartisanship" on the part of Republicans in state capitols, critics warn, could prove deadly in an election year in which the GOP clings to a slim 12-seat margin in the U.S. House.

But last week, Republicans got some hopeful signs from Florida, whose 23-member U.S. House delegation will grow by two as a result of the census. The redistricting plan overwhelmingly enacted by the Republican-run state house of representatives, sources in Tallahassee told me, is a political tour de force.

It creates a new securely Republican congressional seat in Central Florida for state House Speaker Tom Feeney, the conservative leader who was a key player in the 2000 recount battle. It carves out another majority Cuban-American district in Dade County for Republican State Rep. Mario DiazBalart, brother of U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R.-Fla.). Further, it strips the traditionally liberal beach area from the 5th District, making Democratic Rep. Karen Thurman more vulnerable, and makes the Tallahassee district of Democratic Rep. Allen Boyd, Jr. more competitive.

The plan also moves significant Democratic portions of Palm Beach County from Republican Rep. Clay Shaw's district into the neighboring district of fellow Republican Rep. Mark Foley. Two years ago, as Foley was cruising to re-election with 60%, Shaw survived the tightest House race in the nation, eking out a 589-vote victory over Democratic State Rep. Elaine Bloom. This year, Shaw is expected to face an equally spirited challenge from Democrat Carol Roberts, Palm Beach County commissioner and a member of the county canvassing board during the 2000 recount.

With the legislature set to adjourn in days, it is not certain what the Republican-controlled Senate will do. A redistricting plan rejected by the Senate earlier this year differed drastically from the House's. It protected all incumbents, and did not create a new Central Florida district for Speaker Feeney. It did create a new district on the Gulf Coast, however, for more moderate GOP State Sen. Ginny Browne-Waite.

Senate President John McKay-dubbed by one state legislative staffer as a "Republican in name only" -was responsible for his colleagues' failure to quickly follow the excellent blueprint of the House. In a highly publicized power play, McKay ignored the House plan to try to pressure Feeney into supporting McKay's proposal for a statewide initiative to eliminate $4.2 billion in tax exemptions for small businesses and reduce the sales tax rate from 6% to 4.5%. Most Florida conservatives, led by Feeney and Republican Gov. Jeb Bush, opposed this plan, seeing it as a thinly disguised tax increase.

Feeney held firm and, in this session at least, McKay's tax plan is dead, as, it appears, is the senate's alternative redistricting plan. As we were going to press the House remap so desired by Florida Republicans was set to be considered by senate.