U.S. need for naval power will not diminish

Human Events, Oct 27, 2003 by D'Agostino, Joseph A

But, said Spencer, one of the greatest assets of submarines-secrecy-is also one of their biggest liabilities. "There is nothing a Third World dictator wants to see less than an aircraft carrier battle group pulling in over the horizon," he said. "Submarines do not have that psychological effect."

Spencer said the Navy will begin diminishing by three to four submarines a year in 2010 since so few aging subs are slated to be replaced. "Submarines are some of the best intelligence gatherers we have," he said. "They can insert SEALs, fire Tomahawks, all from a secret location."

In any case, the Navy is planning ahead for more aircraft carrier deployments. It plans to be able to deploy six of its twelve carriers at any time with two others able to deploy in a short time, with the last four reserved for maintenance. As for the tactical aircraft that the carriers carry, the Pentagon is already committed to keeping up strength: It is buying 3,000 more planes such as the Joint Strike Fighter at a cost of approximately $300 billion, said Spencer.

A big question is how seabasing will be achieved. "We could not have conducted the Afghanistan operation without help from Pakistan," said Gen. Michael Hagee, commandant of the Marine Corps, at Forum 2003. "We could not have conducted the Iraq operation without help from Kuwait. We need to be in a position to operate directly from the sea, without any help from allies and without any time for ground pre-positioning."

"Seabasing assures access to any JOA [joint operations area under military jurisdiction] despite political and diplomatic exclusion efforts by regional powers," wrote Marine Col. Arthur Corbett, director of the Marines' Future Warfighting Division, in the October 2003 Marine Corps Gazette. He said that the Navy-Marine Corps goal was to have a Marine force ready to invade a country "within seven to ten days from initial deployment" and then be able to sustain that invasion over time without any ground-based assistance.

The Marines plan to use the new V-22 Osprey, which can take off and land like a helicopter and fly like a plane, to transport troops from ship to shore, as well as a new amphibious assault vehicle that can move quickly over land as well as sea. Seabasing will require more sea-based air and missile defenses, but will not necessarily require expanding the Navy's fleet but could mean replacing older ships with newly designed ones such as the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS). "What if they use commercial ships to transport Marines?" suggested Spencer.

Hagee said that he expected the need for American military intervention to increase, not decrease. The "arc of instability" that runs from sub-Saharan Africa through the Middle East into Asia toward North Korea, he said, "is thought by experts to be deteriorating."