Texas-Two Step

Human Events, Mar 22, 2004 by Gizzi, John

The first round in the rancorous two-year reapportionment bout in Texas (see "Politics '04" January 26) ended when the Supreme Court refused to overturn a lower-court ruling upholding a plan that should give Republicans 22 of the 32 seats in the Lone Star State's U.S. House delegation. The second round ended two weeks ago, when Texas primary voters chose candidates in new districts that Democrats and Republicans alike agree should raise the odds on Republicans' retaining their majority in the House this fall.

As expected, two different pairs of incumbent U.S. representatives will square off: In the newly carved 32nd District (Greater Dallas), conservative Republican four-term Rep. Pete Sessions (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 99%) will meet 26-year Rep. Martin Frost (lifetime ACU rating: 16%), past chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, in a classic left-right confrontation. In the new 19th District (Lubbock), freshman Republican Rep. Randy Neugebauer is taking on "Blue Dog" Democratic Rep. Charles Stenholm, a 26-year incumbent whose former 17th District was merged in the 19th. The Republican lawmakers are the early favorites in both districts.

In three other districts, redistricting made three hitherto untouchable Democratic congressmen now at least even money to go down to Republican challengers: In the 1st (Texarkana) fourterm Democrat Max Sandlin (lifetime ACU rating: 33%) will meet one of two Republicans following the April run-off-either former District Judge Louis Gohmert or John Graves, the '02 GOP nominee in the neighboring 4th District-the New York Times has already written about the contest. In the 9th between former District Judge Ted Poe-who rolled up a majority of the Republican primary vote over two opponents-and Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson (lifetime ACU rating: 19%), calling it one of the hot House races in the nation. Finally, in the reapportioncd 17th District (Fort Hood-Fort Worth-College Station), Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards (lifetime ACU rating: 26%) has to run in unfamiliar territory against the eventual winner of the Republican run-off-State Rep. Arlene Wohlgemuth of Johnson County or Dot Snyder, president of the Waco Independent School District.

A generation ago-even 10 years ago-the scenario of Republicans' having run-offs for any office and Democratic lawmakers scrambling to find turf in which to run again would have been unthinkable. But with all statewide offices and a majority of both houses of the state legislature in GOP hands (as of this past year) and George W. Bush in the White House, Texas politics have changed dramatically. When the Austin-based 10th District held by Lyndon B. Johnson from 1937-48 and held for the last decade by liberal Democrat Lloyd Doggett was transformed into a sprawling, GOP-heavy district, Doggett chose to seek re-election in the new neighboring 25th District. Running in a district that is half-Latino and stretches from Austin to the Mexican border, the Anglo congressman nonetheless defeated District Judge Leticia Hinojosa in the primary by a handsome margin.

Fellow Democratic Rep. Chris Bell was not so fortunate. Choosing to seek a second term in his 9th District (Houston) after redistricting made it more than 71% black and Latino, Bell went down to defeat by more than a 2-to-1 margin to former state NAACP President Al Green, who is black.

The other Democratic House incumbent who faced a stiff renomination challenge was four-termer Giro Rodriguez, whose 28th District was redrawn to include Zapata, Laredo, Guadalupe, and parts of San Antonio. Rodriguez apparently staved off a strong primary challenge from Henry Cuellar, a Democrat who served as secretary of state under Bush when he was governor and who two years ago ran a close race against Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla in the neighboring district. Although Rodriguez claimed victory, a recount seemed certain.

Three other districts are now viewed as securely Republican and in two of them, the Republicans long presumed the probable nominees easily won their primaries: former local school board member and Bush family friend Mike Conaway in the new 1 lth District (Midland) and former Carrollton Mayor Kenny Marchant in the new 24th (Fort Worth, Dallas, Denton).

That leaves the reconstituted 10th, which now stretches from the northeast part of Travis County (Austin) well into the Harris County suburbs. To no one's surprise, eight Republicans competed for nomination. The top vote-getter was stalwart conservative mortgage banker Ben Streusand, with 28% of the vote. Given his strong base in Harris County and solid following on the right, Streusand is a strong favorite in the run-off next month over runner-up (24%) Mike McCaIl, a former assistant U.S. attorney and the son-in-law of the owner of the Clear Channel radio empire.

Mr. Gizzi, political editor of HUMAN EVENTS, welcomes political intelligence from subscribers on campaigns and issues at the local and state level. Though he cannot reply to all correspondents, we appreciate yor contributions.