U.S. Can Now Look Ahead to Iraq Success

Human Events, Apr 14, 2008 by McCain, John

HUMAN EVENTS EXCLUSIVE

At the beginning of last year, we were engaged in a great debate about what to do in Iraq. Faced with the prospect of defeat, we had two fundamental choices. We could retreat from Iraq and accept the horrible consequences of our defeat. Or we could change strategies and try to turn things around. It was a critical moment in our nation's history, and a time of testing for our nation's political leadership.

Within six months, our troops have made such enormous sacrifices for the rest of us and dramatically turned around the situation in Iraq. The dramatic reduction in violence has opened the way for a return to something approaching normal political and economic life for the average Iraqi. Political reconciliation is occurring across Iraq at the local and provincial grassroots level. Much more needs to be done, and Iraq's politicians need to know that we expect them to show the necessary leadership to rebuild their country.

The job of bringing security to Iraq is not finished. Iraqi forces recently batded in Basra against radical Shi'a militias, supported by Iran, a fight that showed both the progress made by the Iraqi security forces - a year ago, they could not have carried out such operations on their own - and the continuing need for coalition support. Sunni terrorists and insurgents continue to maintain bases in Mosul and elsewhere in Ninewah Province.

But there is no doubt about the basic reality in Iraq: we are no longer staring into the abyss of defeat, and we can now look ahead to the genuine prospect of success.

Nevertheless, there are those who today argue for a hasty withdrawal from Iraq. Some would withdraw regardless of the consequences. Others say that we can withdraw now and then return if trouble starts again. What they are really proposing, if they mean what they say, is a policy of withdraw and re-invade. For if we withdraw hastily and irresponsibly, we will guarantee that trouble will come immediately.

Over the past year, the counterinsurgency strategy of General Petraeus has been based on the premise that establishing greater security in Iraq is indispensable to advancing political reconciliation and economic reconstruction; to making diplomatic progress in the region; and to preparing the Iraqi military to assume its responsibilities to defend the sovereignty of Iraq and the authority of its elected government. Should the United States withdraw from Iraq before that level of security is established, those goals will be infinitely harder if not impossible to attain. Al Qaeda in Iraq will proclaim victory and increase its efforts to provoke sectarian tensions in Iraq into a full-scale civil war that could descend into genocide and destabilize the Middle East. Iraq would be a failed state that could become a haven for terrorists to train and plan their operations. Iran's influence in Iraq-especially southern Iraq-and throughout the region would increase substantially and encourage other countries to seek accommodation with Tehran at the expense of our interests. These likely consequences of America's failure in Iraq would, almost certainly, require us to return to Iraq or draw us into a wider and far costlier war.

The fact is, we now have a great opportunity, not only to bring stability and freedom to Iraq, but to make Iraq a pillar of our future strategy for the entire region of the greater Middle East.

We must continue to help the Iraqis protect themselves against the terrorists and the insurgents. And we must continue to build the capacities of the Iraqi security Forces so that they can play an increasingly strong and neutral role in suppressing sectarian violence.

All this will require that we keep a sufficient level of American forces in Iraq until security conditions are such that our commanders on the ground recommend otherwise. It also means we must increase levels of reconstruction assistance, so that Iraq's political and economic development can proceed in the security that our forces and Iraqi security Forces provide. Above all, it means we must once again reject, as we did in early 2007, the calls feu- a reckless and irresponsible withdrawal of our forces just at the moment when they are succeeding.

Economic progress is essential if the security gains in Iraq are to be sustained. To move young men away from the attractions of well-funded extremists, we need a vibrant, growing Iraqi economy. The Iraqi government can jump-start this process by using a portion of its budget surplus to employ Iraqis in infrastructure projects and in restoring basic services. The international community should augment Iraqi efforts by broadly enhancing the proven success of microfinance programs to spur entrepreneurship at local levels throughout the country and Iraq's Arab neighbors should invest in regional stability by using the fruits of their oil exports to directly invest hi Iraq. As these efforts begin to take hold in Iraq, it will be - as in all countries - the private sector that creates the vast majority of jobs and propels the growth that will end reliance on outside aid.