Slow growth for alternate powertrains?

According to a new survey by the Center for Automotive Research, the gasoline engine is likely to dominate the automotive market well into the next decade.

Although a variety of factors could change developments, the study predicts that gasoline will continue to be the primary energy source, making up 83% of the market through 2012, with diesels capturing another 10%. The greatest obstacle to diesel growth, the study says, will be meeting increasingly stringent emissions regulations.

The big challenge facing adoption of the fuel cell for automotive power will be the prohibitive cost. The study further suggests that nontransportation fuel cell applications-such as stationary power generation-are likely to prove far more commercially viable through 2020.

The study was conducted as part of the Advanced Powertrain Technology Alliance. It brought together a panel of 25 leaders from across the auto industry and academia. The panel determined that higher gasoline taxes would be the most effective way to achieve lower fuel consumption and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Copyright Hearst Business Publishing Feb 2003
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