Trendwatch

Group, Jan/Feb 2003

four 'it' trends

Youth culture trends are like a swarm of ants pushing a crumb up a hill--only a few control the crumb's momentum at any moment. So, what are the "alpha ant" trends right now, and where are they pushing the culture?

* Thoughtful, earnest music-According to a Teen People trend forecast, "lyric-driven" pop that's intelligent and real will drive the next wave in music until it crashes into the beach like all the others. Think Avril Lavigne, Dashboard Confessional, and Josh Groban. Christian artists, both inside the CCM corral and out in the mainstream, are primed to capitalize. In the midst of a sharp sales decline in the music industry, CCM spiked by 18 percent during the first half of 2002. Buzz-producing bands that are unabashedly Christian include Stavesacre, Lifehouse, 12 Stones, Sixpence None the Richer, RO.D, and Chevelle. And as the Gen Y demographic bubble grows over the next decade, American Demographics expects teenagers will fuel an upsurge in music festival attendance.

* Celebrity-driven fashions-Teen People's fashion expert Brendon Cannon says clothing designed by pop stars like Gwen Stefani of No Doubt will be hot, and almost threequarters of the 7,000 kids the magazine polled agree.

* Socially responsible jobs-The leading edge of the dogooder generation is about to move into the workplace, and nonprofits are waiting with open arms. Shawn Boyer, president of snagajob.com, says, "[Since 9/11] an increasing number of teens are becoming aware of social responsibility." Four out of five kids responding to Teen People's poll agree.

* Skater cred-There are 60% more skateboarders today than four years ago, and in a brutal downturn in magazine circulations, boarder mags are soaring. Transworld Skateboarding, for example, grew by 16% last year and is the only magazine to repeat on AdAge's 2002 top 10 list for excellence in ad pages, circulation, and content. Skaters typically have a more difficult relationship with their parents than nonskaters. According to American Demographics, that may be because they're strongly individualistic and consider themselves experts in all things new.

pop culture skewered by the right rev. tom petty

Is that the sound of apocalyptic hoofbeats, or is that just aging rocker Tom Petty ripping the popular music industry for its unbridled greed, sheeplike fans, and (gasp) morally bankrupt lyrics? Someone must have blasted the hawk-faced, pale, skeletal rock icon with a Gothard ray gun.

Petty has caused a stir in the radio business with his new single "The Last DJ." In interviews with USA Today and Rolling Stone, he launched a startling display of prophetic bombast, this from the same guy who wrote "Refugee" and "Don't Do Me Like That."

* Greed-"Everywhere we look, we want to make the most money possible. This is a dangerous, corrupt notion... Everything-morals, truth-is all going out the window in favor of profit."

* Filthy lyrics--l don't believe in censorship, but I do believe that an artist has to take some moral responsibility for what he or she is putting out there. And I think a lot of these young kids are going to have to learn the hard way before they realize that you can actually do some damage if you're being careless or frivolous in what you're saying."

* A crisis of truth---!There's nothing to be gained by pessimism... None of us seems to be enjoying popular entertainment. It's missing an element of truth, almost to a crisis proportion."

* Music that sexualizes girls"Young women aren't being respected, children aren't being respected. Why are we creating a nation of child molesters?... I really don't put it past these advertising people to say, 'Well, look, we made a lot of money when we brought the 9-year-old out and made her look like a hooker. Let's do it again.'"

* The great Satan, TV-"TV's downright dangerous. It endangers every one of us. There's an industry that makes the music business look like Boy Scouts. You would have thought you'd see a drastic change in attitude and maybe some moral responsibility in the wake of 9/11."