Cross-cultural comparison of responses to the Monty Hall dilemma

Social Behavior and Personality, 1999 by Granberg, Donald

RESULTS

The main results are summarized in Table 1. In each country people responded similarly to the MHD by showing a strong tendency toward the nonoptimal answer of sticking with their initial selection. The percentage of subjects who checked "stick" in the MHD overall was 83%, and ranged between only 79% for China and 87% for Brazil. The U.S. and Sweden were intermediate with 84% and 83%, respectively, checking that they would stick. These four percentages are not significantly different from one another (x^sup 2^ = 2.18, df = 3, p > .OS); however, in each country, the observed split departed significantly from a 50-50 distribution (p

Similar results were found for the RRD. On this problem, for which the optimal solution is to stick, the percentage sticking was 84% overall, 78% for Brazil, 81% for China, 85% for the U.S., and 87% for Sweden. Once again, the four countries were not significantly different from each other (ZZ = 4.44, df =3, p > .OS), but the subjects within each country showed a significant departure from a chance distribution of 50-50 (p

Within each country, the responses to the MHD were not significantly different from those for the RRD. The largest difference occurred in the case of Brazilian subjects, 87% of whom chose to stick in the MHD, compared to 78% in the RRD. This difference is in the opposite direction from rationality, but the difference of 9 percentage points is not statistically significant (p > .OS). Thus, to paraphrase Granberg and Brown (1995), people within each of these four rather different cultures showed a strong tendency to stick when they should stick but also tended to stick when they should have switched.

Combining across cultures and across the type of problem, women were more likely to indicate "stick" (86%) than were men (81%). Thus, the main effect of gender implies a slight and marginally significant tendency for women, more than men, to stick more in two-stage decisions (x^sup Z^ = 3.91, dfl, p

DISCUSSION

The gender effect which we observed was no more than a slight difference, and it is not easy to replicate. The safest statement to make is that if there is a difference, women may be ever so slightly more likely to stick with an initial judgment in a two-stage decision. However, the difference is so small that it does not warrant much attention.

Our main finding is of cross-cultural similarity in the tendency of people to respond erroneously to the MHD type of two-stage decision problem. Thus, it appears that there is something inherent in the MHD, as a cognitive illusion, which leads people in very different cultures to respond similarly. People misapprehend the true probabilities, perceiving the odds to be even, and then tend to stick with their original selection. They are probably seeking to avoid the greater negative affect associated with being wrong after switching away from the winning alternative (Granberg & Brown, 1995). Because the four cultures studied encompass very considerable variety, the temptation is to infer that the tendency to stick in the MHD reflects a universal human propensity; it may, however, be premature to go that far.

It can be argued also that while the wording was made as nearly the same as possible, the actual meaning of the problem posed may have been quite different. That is, people may have been responding similarly - but for different reasons. In retrospect, perhaps the problem should have concerned some valuable prize other than a new car. It is difficult to say exactly what meaning the problem had for the Chinese students, living in a country with fewer televisions and cars per capita and to whom the game show format may have been relatively unfamiliar. However, that would create more of an interpretive problem if the Chinese students had responded differently, but they did not. The game show format is highly familiar in the other countries, Brazil and Sweden, and, of course, the U.S. where the show "Let's Make a Deal," with Monty Hall as host, originated.

Another objection concerns what motivation or incentive the subjects had to do well, i.e., to solve the problem correctly. However, evidence from laboratory experiments using an MHD type of problem with real monetary incentives implies that the tendency to stick with a preliminary, revocable decision observed in the four cultures in the current study does not exaggerate what would be observed if real prizes were at stake (Granberg & Brown, 1995; Friedman, 1998; Granberg & Dorr, 1998). Also, the fact that people in each culture departed significantly from a 50-50 distribution of responses is a strong indication that these subjects were giving their best estimate of what they would actually do, and were not responding randomly.