Efficacy of using a single, non-technical variable to predict the academic success of freshmen engineering students

Journal of Engineering Education, Jan 2003 by Lackey, Laura W, Lackey, W Jack, Grady, Helen M, Davis, Marjorie T

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates the efficacy of using freshman student scores from one non-technical assignment to predict academic success as measured by cumulative grade point average after completion of the first two semesters enrolled at the Mercer University School of Engineering. The predictor assignment is keeping a dialectic course notebook and corresponds to the student's attitude, persistence, and organizational skills rather than math and science preparedness. Statistical analysis, at the 99 percent confidence level, indicated that there was a strong relationship between the student notebook scores and grade point average. Although there was scatter in the data, this one variable does provide insight into student success in the Mercer University Engineering program.

I. INTRODUCTION

Numerous papers have been written on the topic of student retention in higher education and a variety of multi-variable models have been developed to predict student success. To gain admittance into an engineering school, students must meet or exceed a model or criteria established by their prospective college or university. The admittance criteria attempt to establish the baseline skill level necessary for success in the engineering curriculum. Admittance guidelines are based on accepted academic success predictors such as standardized tests scores, high school grade point average, and participation in extracurricular activities. But regardless of this selective admission criterion, all students are not successful in engineering programs.

Predicting the success of students engaged in higher education is important. Many models have been developed to predict student success and retention in chosen fields of study as well as at the chosen college or university. Frequently, retention models incorporate scores from standard achievement tests and the high school grade point average (GPA) with additional predictive variables. In this study, professors had noted a correlation between performance on a dialectic notebook assignment and the student's performance in the Professional Practices class where the assignment was a requirement. Closer examination revealed a relationship between success in the dialectic notebook assignment and success during the freshman year.

The dialectic notebook (also sometimes called a critical thinking notebook) employs a technique of having students reflect upon their learning throughout the semester's course. Dividing notebook pages with a vertical line, students take notes on one side and write questions, comments, or speculations about what they are reading or learning on the other side. Students in the Professional Practices course are required to complete the readings and to complete notebook entries about them-thus assuring a level of engagement beyond casual skimming of the texts. Additionally, students are encouraged to interact with the ideas they are reading-questioning, relating, noticing applications, and so forth. The notebooks thus become a strong indicator of the student's degree of engagement in the readings and activities.

Notebooks are not "graded" in terms of extensive comments; rather, the teacher simply skims the entries and makes a global qualitative assessment of how well the student completed the assignment. The following variables were used to quantify the notebook grade: completeness (student has read and responds to the meaning of the material), presentation (including neatness, readability, organization), quality of reflection (student does more than repeat the content of readings), and application (student makes an effort to link ideas or concepts, or to apply something they have read to something in their own experience). Faculty noticed that those students who created good notebooks seemed to be performing better and sought to challenge this hypothesis.

II. LITERATURE REVIEW AND BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Success in engineering programs has been linked to a variety of intellectual and non-cognitive skills. Researchers have historically used scores from the mathematics portion of the SAT to distinguish persisters from those who either drop out of the engineering curriculum and enter into an alternate field of study and those who no longer pursue any type of secondary education [7,9,17]. Additional intellectual success factors include the high school GPA and university math and chemistry placement scores [8, 16, 17]. Levin and Wycokoff [16, 17] also incorporated a variety of non-intellective factors such as attitude toward high school mathematics and physics into a model used to predict success. Additional non-academic factors such as personality, motivation, student background and their attitude towards themselves, level of parental education, attitudes toward studying, and prior knowledge of the engineering major have all been shown to be useful as predictive retention and success variables [6,9,10,17].

The retention of students based on gender and minority differences has also been evaluated. Felder et al. [10] reported that although women begin their pursuit of an undergraduate engineering degree with equal or better credentials than their male peers, by the end of their sophomore year they were twice as likely to drop out as compared to male students.