1 - THE PENTAGON'S NEW MAP

Growth Strategies, Jan 2005

MIND THE GAP

We wrote in 1991 (issue #718) that the four major trends of "The Coming Global Landscape" were, simultaneously, Globalization, Regionalism, Fragmentation, and Polarization (of "the violent states or regions from the non-violent, the stable from the unstable, the liberal democratic from the non-liberal democratic, and the free-markct-based economies from the non-free-market-based economies"). As we explained, the quickening pace of modernization in a growing portion of the world would, for several decades at least, mean a growing gap "between those populations and economies that are advancing on the basis of information, education, communication and technology, and those that are not."

Thomas P.M. Barnett, a military futurist at the Naval War College, noticed this too. In his book The Pentagon's New Map (2004), he divides the world into The Functioning Core (those states or regions already integrated into or attempting to connect to the global economy), and the Non-Integrating Gap (where connectivity to the modernizing world is relatively thin). Noting that virtually all US military activity since the end of the Cold War has occurred outside the Core and inside the Gap, the author argues that America's challenge for the twenty-first century is clear: expand the Core, and shrink the Gap.

[The Functioning Core includes North America, Europe (both old and new), Russia, India, China, Japan, Australia/New Zealand, South Africa and the ABCs of South America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile), accounting for roughly two-thirds of global population. The Non-Integrating Gap includes the Caribbean rim of Central and South America, all of Africa north of South Africa, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and much of Southeast Asia.]

The American military drifted through the 1990s without any such global vision, grand strategy, or guiding principles to replace containment of communism. But the events of 9/11 and resulting war on terror now give national security strategy its focus: shrink the area of the globe that is disconnected from globalization's integrating forces. When the US "exports" security to the Gap, it reduces the operating environment from which dangerous threats can emerge. New social, political, and economic systems will emerge in the different Gap countries, but they will all be guided by the principle of connectivity with the functioning Core, to which they will all eventually belong.

THE NEW MILITARY FORCE STRUCTURE

What sort of military forces do we need to do this? Barnett says we need two kinds: a Leviathan force (flexible, speedy, lethal and effective), and a System Administrator force, "civil affairs-oriented and network-centric . . . an always-on, alwaysnearby, always-approachable resource for allies and friends in need." This is the force that comes in after the fighting arid literally brings civilization: electricity, roads, water and sewage systems, social services - in short, a functioning civil society.

This is part of the transformation and restructuring the Pentagon is now undergoing, Barnett believes. Within a generation, he predicts, the system administrator force will command the majority of the defense budget.

Indeed, current events seem to conform to this model. In Iraq, for example, the US now has two military commands: a Multinational Corps Iraq (which focuses on the tactical fight), and a Multinational Force Iraq (which focuses more on strategic aspects of the military presence, such as talking with sheiks and political leaders, and on training, equipping and fielding Iraqi security forces). Across the rest of the world, according to LJS News & World Report, the Pentagon has embraced the concept of the Core-Gap divide, accepted the "dual capability" strategy to deal with it, and is repositioning its force posture - moving bases, equipment and personnel - to reflect the new environment.

A NEW NATIONAL SECURITY VISION AND STRATEGY

Certain major flows must proceed over the next several decades if globalization is to continue its advance and the Gap is to be shrunk, writes Barnett. People and energy must flow from the Gap to the Core, and security and investments from the Core to the Gap. The United States can best secure its future by supporting this process with a "Transaction Strategy," concludes Barnett. This is a national security vision that would seek to:

* Nurture security relations across the Functioning Core by maintaining and expanding our historical alliances.

* Firewall off the Core from the Gap's most destabilizing exports - namely, terrorism, drugs, and pandemic diseases - while providing immigration opportunities to those who can contribute.

* Progressively shrink the Gap by continuing to export security to its greatest trouble spots while integrating any countries that are economic success stories as quickly as possible.

Growth Strategies Implications

Barnett believes President Bush's administration has the right strategic vision, and that Defense secretary Rumsfeld's Pentagon has taken many of the steps needed to get the longterm strategy rolling. Where he faults them is in explaining this vision to the American public and the world. If they were more explicit about the different security rule sets at work in the Core versus the Gap, and clearer about their ultimate goal (expanding connectedness, shrinking disconnectedness), there would be far more understanding and support.