Kansas Nursing Occupational Outlook 2000-2010

Kansas Nurse, Mar 2005 by Schmidt, Katie

The Kansas State Department of Human Resources recently released a study of occupational employment throughout the state. The data was compiled using data collected from the unemployment insurance program and the Occupational and Employment Survey (OES). The study projects employment by industry and occupation from the year 2000-2010. Projected demand for occupational employment is significantly affected by the projected employment for industries.

In 2000, the population of Kansas was approximately 2.7 million with the majority of residents living in urban areas. Kansas has consistently experienced unemployment rates below the nation as a whole. In 1998 the state unemployment rate was 3.8% compared to a national unemployment rate of 4.5%. Currently the Kansas unemployment rate stands at 5.2% and the national 5.8%.

The study is based on a long term view of the state's economy and assumes that in 2010 the state's economy will be operating more or less at its full potential. Outside factors such as the war in Iraq on oil prices or the likelihood that currently unknown technologies will substantially change the nature of the state's economy were not factored in.

The study first projected employment by industry using current and historical data from the state's unemployment insurance program. Next, data from the OES was used to create staffing patterns by industry, and finally when the two were combined occupational projections were produced.

National Trends

While the outlook for nurses in Kansas appears to be steadily improving, on a national scale things may not be so promising. Studies show that in the United States there are on average 773 RNs to every 100,000 people. However, despite this fact, job prospects in nursing are very good.

Currently there are more than 2.6 million licensed RNs in the United States and of these 2.6 million 2.2 million of these licensed RNs are employed in nursing. 71.6 percent of licensed RNs work full time compared with only 28.4 percent who work part time. Of these 2.6 million RNs approximately 7.3 percent are advanced practice nurses.

The registered nurse workforce as a whole is aging. The average age of an RN in 2004 is 45.2 , where as in 1996 the average age was 44.3, and in 1980 over 50 percent of RNs were under 40. National nursing trends suggest a peak in nurses working full time in 2007 followed by a steady decline. Because the occupation is large, this indicates that thousands of job openings will result from the need to replace experienced nurses who leave the occupation, especially as the median age of the registered nurse population continues to rise.

Some states report current and projected shortages of RNs, primarily due to an aging RN workforce and recent declines in nursing school enrollments.

Employment in hospitals, the current largest sector of employment, employing 59.1 percent of all RNs, is expected to grow more slowly than in other healthcare sectors. While the intensity of nursing care is likely to increase, requiring more nurses per patient, the number of hospital inpatients is unlikely to increase. Rapid growth is expected in hospital outpatient facilities, such as those In evolving integrated health care networks, nurses may rotate among employment settings. Because jobs in traditional hospital nursing positions are no longer the only option, RNs will need to be flexible. Opportunities should be excellent, particularly for nurses with advanced education and training, as the American Journal of Nursing reports that there are more than 126,000 unfilled nursing positions.

Kansas

Registered nurses were listed in the top three for occupations adding the most jobs, adding more than 6,000 to the profession. In 2000, average employment of RNs stood at 22,120. Registered nurses are projected to experience a 31.1 percent growth or the addition of 6,890 new jobs by the year 2010. RNs maintaining an active license and Kansas residency total 28,044. (Kansas Board of Nursing FY2003 report: not a total of RNs actually practicing nursing.)

RNs are also considered a high demand occupation, placing in the top five for Kansas, resulting from growth and replacement. To be considered high demand, the occupation must have at least 5,000 total job openings. These openings are a result of both growth and replacements. RNs are projected to experience a growth of over 11,000 jobs in the next decade.

New job increases are also projected for nursing aides: In 2000 there were 18,800 nursing aides and orderlies employed. Nursing aides and orderlies made the Kansas Top 10 Occupations Adding the Most Jobs List as well as the High Demand Occupations list. Aides and orderlies are expected to experience a growth of 29.8 percent with the addition of 8,000 new jobs.

The report breaks Kansas into 7 areas that encompass several counties per area. The following is a brief summary of each area's projections.

North East Kansas:

17 counties; [Atchison, Brown, Clay, Doniphan, Douglas, Franklin, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson, Marshall, Nemaha, Osage, Pottawatomie, Riley, Shawnee, Wabaunsee, Washington.]