Enabling Industrial Ecology through the Forecasting of Durable Goods Disposal: Televisions as an Exemplar Case Study

Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, Jun 2004 by Linton, Jonathan D, Yeomans, Julian Scott, Yoogalingam, Reena

Abstract

A lack of understanding of the waste flow of durable goods complicates decision making, especially in the face of technological change and obsolescence. To address the problem, this study considers the modeling of the waste flow of durable goods, using televisions to illustrate the requirements for forecasting and the magnitude of the associated uncertainty. A combination of laws in various jurisdictions and the emergence of alternate technology trajectories for televisions-the flat panel display and phase-out of analogue broadcasting-make this example particularly timely. The findings suggest that the reuse of lead-containing cathode ray tube (CRT) glass is worth consideration, even though the adoption of flat panel TV technology will eliminate this controversial waste stream at some point in the future. The findings also indicate the range of the quantity of waste that can be displaced from municipal landfills and requires an alternative collection infrastructure, important information for both developing a collection infrastructure and processing alternatives to extract the residual value of the discarded televisions.

R�sum�

L'ignorance du flux des d�chets des biens durables rend la prise de d�cision difficile, surtout au regard du contexte technologique actuel marqu� par l'obsolescence et le changement. La pr�sente �tude, qui s'appuie sur la gestion des d�chets de t�l�vision pour mettre en exergue les imp�ratifs d'une approche pr�ventive et l'ampleur de l'incertitude qu'elle comporte, se propose d'aborder le probl�me sous l'angle d'une mod�lisation du flux des d�chets des biens durables. L'exemple utilis� est d'autant plus indiqu� qu' on note une combinaison de lois dans diverses juridictions et l'apparition des lignes de technologie alternative pour la t�l�vision, avec l'affichage sur �crans plats et l'abandon progressif de la radiodiffusion analogique. Les conclusions de notre �tude indiquent que la r�utilisation des tubes cathodiques en verre contenant du plomb (CRT) est une solution qui m�rite d'�tre envisag�e, m�me s'il est vrai que l'adoption de la technologie des �crans plats �liminera, avec le temps, ce flux de d�chets. Les r�sultats montrent �galement qu'il faudra disposer de beaucoup d'informations pour d�velopper de nouvelles infrastructures de collectes et de traitements des d�chets (par exemple les t�l�visions en panne) qui ne pourront plus �tre d�pos�s dans les d�charges municipales, et pour l'extraction de leur valeur r�siduelle.

Legislation in the United States (Department of Environmental Protection of the State of Massachusetts (DEP), 1998), Europe (EU, 2003), and Asia (Linton, 1999) is for the first time encouraging industrial ecology by preventing the dumping of waste and attempting to encourage the processing of the waste into something economically useful and environmentally benign. Surprisingly, Canada has lagged far behind many other countries in relation to this type of policy and legislation. This tardiness actually provides an opportunity for Canadians to learn from the earlier actions of others, enabling the enactment and implementation of laws that are more likely to offer the intended societal benefits without the unintended consequences, expenses, and dislocations. While the laws to date in other countries have been broadly focused on electronics products, in this paper we consider one particular subset of electronic products-televisions that use the cathode ray tube (CRT) technology. This specific product focus has been selected because (a) it is affected by new legislation on three continents and, as such, provides a likely early target for similar legislation in Canada; (b) it is a durable product with an extremely high market penetration; (c) it contains a large weight and volume of lead, which is known and widely recognized as a hazardous substance; and (d) it has recently been affected by significant technological change.

In this paper, we briefly consider industrial ecology and durable goods. This is followed by a consideration of the impact of anti-landfilling legislation on our example, the television CRT. We determine the supply and timing of CRT waste for a jurisdiction with income and market characteristics similar to the United States, and consider the subsequent implications of these findings.

If a balance can be attained between the supply of a waste stream and any subsequent demand for that particular waste, then the problems related to disposal of this waste through landfilling or incineration can be avoided, thereby producing significant social, economical, and environmental benefits. Since some streams of waste possess economic value when used as the raw material inputs in certain other applications, it is possible that this waste flow could, in fact, be used as a valuable input stream. For example, the various businesses involved in lead refining, glaze manufacturing, or the manufacture of X-ray shielding products might use the lead-bearing CRTs from discarded televisions as their production inputs. If it could be clearly demonstrated that a steady flow of a waste stream was obtainable for an acceptable price over a sufficiently long time, then this waste could be considered an economically viable, raw material input stream by certain businesses, providing the price is competitive with conventional sources. However, if these waste streams are ever to become an effective manufacturing input, the planning and management issues surrounding the inherent uncertainty of the timing and availability of the waste quantities becomes critical.