Enabling Industrial Ecology through the Forecasting of Durable Goods Disposal: Televisions as an Exemplar Case Study

Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, Jun 2004 by Linton, Jonathan D, Yeomans, Julian Scott, Yoogalingam, Reena

To remove the barrier that is currently posed by the uncertainty of the waste availability, we provide a means to forecast the supply of discarded durable goods. Specifically, we examine the case of CRTs from television disposals, since this is a widespread product that poses considerable environmental concern, is significantly affected by recent technological change, and recently became the focus of legislation in the United States (Cass, 2002; DEP, 1998), Asia (Linton, 1999), and the European Union (EU, 2003).

To consider forecasting the disposal and reclamation of television CRTs as an example of a durable good, we examine the forecasting practice to date, the television's lifecycle, and several other factors that affect its use and disposal. Next, we explain the assumptions associated with modeling the disposal and the assumptions associated with technological change (for a more detailed justification and extensive sensitivity analysis of the underlying assumptions and distributions used, see Yoogalingam, 2003). We present the results of several different technology obsolescence scenarios and consider the implications of these forecasts. Finally, in the conclusion, we summarize directions for future research and important findings.

Current Practice - Forecasting of Television Waste

In general, the forecasting of television waste has focused on one component of the television, the CRT. The CRT is the centre of attention since it is the single heaviest part (weighing from 10 to 90 pounds) and contains a high lead concentration. The lead content in CRTs raises environmental concern over the potential for contamination of land and groundwater adjoining disposal sites. This concern has led to an interest in finding alternative uses for the material (i.e., reprocessing) in order to divert it from the waste dumps. Consequently, our forecasts focus on the weight of waste leaded CRT glass.

Unfortunately, forecasts to date for CRT waste from televisions and computer monitors have been very simplistic, as demonstrated by the synopsis and analysis conducted by the Department of the Environment of the State of Massachusetts (DEP, 1998). As the first jurisdiction in the United States to ban CRT-containing televisions from municipal landfills, the DEP was concerned with both the quantity of televisions disposed of and the identification of diversion options that are economically and environmentally attractive. The DEP produced five forecasts for the waste in Massachusetts, summarized as follows:

1. Based on figures from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the base assumption is 9.4 lbs of residential CRT waste per household, which translates into 13,000 tons of household CRT waste per year. This figure is doubled to take into account commercial CRT waste for a total of 26,000 tons of CRT waste per year.

2. Based on Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corporation's figures of 300,000 tons of CRT waste per year, Massachusetts' share is 6,500 tons/year of television CRTs.