Moldova under Lucinschi

Demokratizatsiya, Winter 2002 by Quinlan, Paul D

Not surprisingly, in this turbulent economic climate wage and benefit arrears also shot up, going from 363 million lei in January 1998 to 638.2 million lei ($77 million) in December. 15 This and the overall decline in living standards sparked strikes and demonstrations by trade unions, students, and veterans. Some of the arrears dated back a year or more. To ease the situation Parliament passed a law to pay recipients with food and other goods covering up to 50 percent of what was owed, provided they agreed. One positive outcome was the reduction of the 1998 budget deficit to below 3 percent, but even this was partly because of the government's inability to pay wages and benefits.

The situation over Transnistria remained at a stalemate in 1998, in part a further reminder of Moldova's ongoing and complex ethnic problems. Historically Transnistria has not been a part of Moldova, neither has it been viewed as a traditionally Romanian land. Even more than Moldova proper, from 1792 Transnistria has been an integral part of the Slavic world, with its politics, economics, and cultural life closely tied to those of Russia. With Russians and Ukrainians forming over 50 percent of the population, it has been the Russians who have dominated. In the late 1980s and after, the strongest resistance to the creation of an independent Moldovan state with close ties to, or reunited with, Romania came from Transnistria. Although Moldova's moving closer to Romania sparked widespread fear in Transnistria and acted as a catalyst in separating it from the rest of Moldova, the actions of the local Russian elites in Transnistria, who feared losing their power and positions in the new Moldova, were even more crucial. Studies have shown that most people in Transnistria identify themselves as citizens of the Soviet Union, although there is a distinct Transnistrian identity developing. Following the brief but bloody civil war in 1992 between Transnistria and Moldova, proper attempts to negotiate the future status of Transnistria have take center stage, with the latter demanding de facto independence.

In March and again in July meetings were held in Odessa to reach a political settlement of the Transnistria situation, but to no avail. In May 1998 Yeltsin urged both Transnistria and Moldova to "strictly abide" by the May memorandum, which called for the creation of a "common state," even though both sides interpreted the meaning of a "common state" differently. At the Odessa meeting Russian defense minister Igor Sergeev ruled out any withdrawal of Russian troops from Transnistria until a political settlement between Moldova and Transnistria was reached. In spring 1998 Transnistria held a nonbinding resolution to join the Russo-Belarus union, which 67 percent of the voters supposedly approved. Lucinschi, of course, denounced the resolution, along with Yeltsin and Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, but that would not be the end of it. Ironically, just as Transnistria's new elites have little incentive to jeopardize their well-entrenched positions by reuniting with Moldova, the same can be said of Moldova's new elites vis-a-vis Romania.