Demography and democracy in Russia: Human capital challenges to democratic consolidation

Demokratizatsiya, Winter 2003 by Balzer, Harley

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, Russia will experience the following:

Continued low adult life expectancy, especially among males, due largely to cardiovascular disease and alcohol-related causes that are not easily reversible

Increased mortality from AIDS and TB

A declining birth rate, with fewer healthy women and fewer women in the cohorts of childbearing age, while most families will continue to limit family size

An aging and increasingly fragile population that will put strains on the medical system and the economy (see table 1)

TABLE 1. Russian Population by Age Cohort as of 1 January 2001

Age Total Males Females

under 4 6,393,259 3,237,075 3,066,184

5-9 7,639,114 3,916,059 3,723,055

10-14 11,523,877 5,883,668 5,640,208

15-19 11,945,733 6,061,805 5,883,928

20-24 10,848,502 5,471,016 5,377,486

25-29 10,316,045 5,242,487 5,073,558

30-34 9,487,228 4,834,015 4,653,213

35-39 11,229,825 5,587,291 5,642,534

40-44 12,589,305 6,145,435 6,443,870

45-49 11,500,639 5,490,844 6,009,795

50-54 9,385,217 4,355,629 5,029,588

55-59 4,955,170 2,165,087 2,790,083

60-64 8,807,929 3,630,693 5,177,236

65-69 5,865,692 2,251,085 3,614,607

70-74 6,175,774 2,083,752 4,092,022

75-79 3,386,113 831,215 2,554,898

80-84 1,501,308 328,978 1,172,330

85-89 974,168 182,948 791,220

90-94 283,588 56,481 227,107

95-99 83,126 17,856 62,270

100 17,487 6,226 11,261

Source: Chislennost' naseleniia rossiiskoi federatsii po polu i vozrastu na 1 ianvaria 2001 goda (Moscow: Goskomstat, 2001), 5-7.

(Relative) population increases among non-Russian, non-Slavic and non-Orthodox groups

Increased immigration, both legal and illegal, overwhelmingly from countries with quite different ethnic and cultural backgrounds, and predominantly with lower educational levels

Increasing economic differentiation, accompanied by continued stratification in provision of educational and medical services

A continuing trend for the most talented individuals, particularly in science and technology, to join the global labor market and spend at least part of their working lives outside Russia

Intense competition among the military, the education system, and employers for the declining number of healthy working-age people

The young people who will turn seventeen--the threshold age for military service, higher education, or marriage--in the coming fifteen years have already been born. The numbers are daunting (see table 1).

The challenges facing Russia are complex and intricately interrelated. The declining number of Russians has encouraged pro-natalist policies. Such programs are rarely effective, but to the extent they do succeed they tend to keep women out of the labor force, increasing the need for immigrant labor. Immigration creates enormous social problems, and in a highly competitive global market Russia is likely to attract large numbers of migrants from regions quite different from Russia itself--China, Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Slavic immigrants on average are not likely to be younger or more healthy than Russians, and immigrants everywhere place special burdens on education and health care systems. If Russia succeeds in adding to the population, this is likely to represent a net decline in intellectual capital. Increased diversity exacerbates social tensions, as young people without good employment prospects take out their resentments on "foreigners." Poor children's health has an adverse impact on education, children who are hungry or sick do not do well in school, and children of immigrants often have special needs.