Demography and democracy in Russia: Human capital challenges to democratic consolidation

Demokratizatsiya, Winter 2003 by Balzer, Harley

Chinese migration demonstrates the complex and cross-cutting interests involved in Russia's population policy. A large portion of the Chinese in Russia are traders, providing inexpensive goods that Russians both crave and disparage. Some employers in the Far East want Chinese workers, who are willing to take jobs Russians eschew and often can be exploited at low or delayed wages; yet many Russian traders and businessmen resent competition from Chinese who demonstrate entrepreneurial skills. University administrators view Chinese youth as a potential source of tuition-paying students, particularly as the number of school-age Russians declines. Their interests conflict with the security concerns of government officials and the fears of many Russians, which provide fodder for populist politicians. Sober analysts provide compelling arguments that Chinese migration to the Russian Far East does not represent a serious threat. Yet these same scholars note that three-fourths of Russians in the Far East perceive it to be a threat. For the short term, it is a political rather than a demographic problem. In the longer term it could be both.

The Russian Duma approved a new Law on Foreigners as deputies left for vacation in July 2002. The legislation does little to address the problems of thousands of individuals from former Soviet republics living in limbo across Russia. They represent a potentially significant political force, one more example of the growing importance of demographic issues in Russian politics.

Regional and Federation Politics

Population movement will also influence politics within the Russian Federation. The Russian "core" is becoming more Russian, as Russians move back from former Soviet republics and from the Russian north and east. This may temporarily offset the lower birthrates among Russians in regions such as the Volga. At the same time, non-Russian regions are becoming more "ethnic," with the proportion of members of the titular nationalities increasing in some republics. In the short term, this represents a decline in intellectual capital in regions where the Russians and other Slavs provided the scientific, technical, and administrative personnel, a factor that could hinder economic development. (It is also part of a broad drain of talented managers to Moscow, which creates difficulties for business development in some regions.) In the longer term, the consequence of a reduced Russian presence could be to encourage immigration from other countries, and eventually new demands for greater autonomy. The situation is an invitation to politicians both in the regions and in Moscow to "play the ethnic card."

Vladimir Putin's policy of reasserting central authority must be viewed in this context. In the short run, it appears to have induced (at least formal) compliance. In the longer run, it may result in greater resentment. The Duma passed legislation prohibiting Tatarstan from abandoning the Cyrillic alphabet; a future generation might seek to replace it not with Latin script, but with Arabic.