Origins of United Russia and the Putin Presidency: The Role of Contingency in Party-System Development, The

Demokratizatsiya, Spring 2004 by Hale, Henry E

At this point, there is simply too little evidence and there are too many theories to know for sure what really happened. For the purposes of our interpretive analysis, what may be more important is whom the Russian people blamed for the bombings. In the initial aftermath of the attacks, few publicly questioned the official version that Chechens were responsible. By spring 2002, however, the vast majority of Russians appear to have been uncertain. just 16 percent were sure that Chechen rebels did it, but even fewer, 6 percent, were convinced of FSB involvement.51

All of this is quite consistent with the interpretation that Putin was popular not because the Chechen War was popular in and of itself but because of what Putin's move into Chechnya communicated about Putin as a leader.52 Indeed, even during the critical autumn after the apartment bombings, the evidence is strong that what Russians were looking for was not, specifically, an invasion of Chechnya but any kind of decisive action that could be interpreted as standing up for them. According to the reputable VTsIOM polling agency, in late November 1999, at the same time that the ratio of people supporting to opposing continuation of the military action in Chechnya was well over 2:1, more people than not would also have supported a halt to the war if Putin had proposed it (48 percent to 42 percent).53

Reinforcing the importance of these findings, reliable public opinion surveys throughout fall 1999 found consistently that only a minority of the population supported preventing Chechen secession at any cost. One poll, taken in October, soon after the invasion had begun, revealed that just 20 percent supported keeping Chechnya in Russia at all costs and that far more respondents, 32 percent, would actually be "happy" to see it separate from the federation. Another 34 percent reported that they could live with an independent Chechnya. Interestingly, the percentage of Russians for preventing Chechen secession at all costs strongly appears to have followed Putin's lead rather than driven his behavior. In fact, VTsIOM reported that the percentage that would have been happy with Chechen secession was a whopping 53 percent in September, right after the bombings. Only as Putin gradually ramped up the rhetoric, moved troops decisively into Chechnya, and saw his ratings rise accordingly did these figures begin to fall. By December 1999, the percentage that would have been happy without Chechnya had dropped to 21 percent. This is still a significant number, especially given that at this time only 30 percent supported keeping Chechnya at all costs, while 48 percent would still have accepted Chechen independence.54 As one VTsIOM analyst noted, the percentages supporting keeping Chechnya at all costs were roughly equivalent to the percentages in the Soviet Union that had supported keeping the Baltic countries in the USSR at all costs.55 As if to underline the conclusion that what Russians wanted more than any particular solution was action in general, the September poll found that 64 percent of Russian citizens also would have supported the "solution" of deporting all Chechens from Russian territory.56