Rwanda: Economy will provide the acid test

Rwanda's normalisation process took another step forward with the recent Presidential and legislative elections. But it is the economy, rather than politics which will provide stability to the nation. Neil Ford reports.

The normalisation of Rwanda's domestic affairs continued in August and September with the country's first Presidential and legislative elections since the 1994 genocide catapulted the nation in the headlines for all the wrong reasons.

Paul Kagame of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) won the Presidential poll and should lead the country for at least the next seven years. During this time, he could put even more distance between contemporary Rwanda and the country which was devastated just under a decade ago.

The key to success will be to boost the standard of living for the masses, for there is a great deal of truth in the old saying that rebellion and revolution is borne out of empty stomachs.

Kagame originally served as Vice-President in the transitional government which was set up in 1994, before acceding to the Presidency in 2000. He won the August poll with 95% of the vote, something of a surprise given that he is a Tutsi, that Rwandans traditionally vote along ethnic lines and that Hutus remain in the majority. Some may view the result as proof of Kagame's popularity across the board but others fear the overwhelming result was partly the result of electoral fraud. Representatives of nongovernmental organisations criticised irregularities and the lack of political freedoms, while European Union observers described the election as "an important step in the democratic process", although they conceded that it was "not entirely free and fair".

Putting Rwanda's role in the conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to one side, Kagame is generally popular with international donors and governments. However, he needs to build on the improved national security situation of the past few years and embark upon genuine national reconstruction. While improved civil and political rights may help to assuage Hutu opposition, as always it is economic growth that will stabilise the country in the long term. The risk of renewed conflict can be limited, provided the standard of living of most Rwandans starts to rise.

Kagame has repeatedly said all the right things regarding rebuilding the country. For instance, he argued: "There are some who are scared by unity and by building a country on the basis of ideas. They are still using ethnic criteria and believe that politics should be based on ethnic belonging, religion or other criteria which divide people. I thought we had outgrown that."

The Rwandan newspaper Umuseso summed up the needs of the nation: "Rwanda needs a leader with a vision, who places himself above petty politics and loves equally his country and all Rwandans. Then development and foreign assistance will follow: There will be freedom of the press, it will rain and farmers will harvest because there will be peace."

Balancing national peace with agrarian success will be the key to success, while the new constitution should also encourage a spirit of co-operation. The RPF is not permitted to hold more than half of all Ministerial posts, in order to encourage the participation of all strands of political opinion in government, while Kagame is not permitted to select the Prime Minister from his own party.

ECONOMIC CHALLENGE

The economic strategy adopted by most African nations focuses upon economic restructuring and diversification. Improvements in infrastructure are put at the top of the agenda, with IMF and other donor lending closely associated with balancing the budget. The situation is slightly different in Rwanda as a result of the overwhelmingly rural nature of the population. Although the country is one of the most densely inhabited on the continent, around 90% of the population continues to live outside towns.

Coffee cultivation formed the foundation of the economy prior to the genocide and so enabling people to earn a reasonable living from coffee production and so staying on the land is central to both economic and national success.

During the 1994 genocide and subsequent instability, many people abandoned their coffee plantations, while others who fled the killing have been working land for the past nine years that they found abandoned. Sorting out who is entitled to what is a logistical nightmare but one that is largely being settled on a local basis. The resolution of land disputes should also encourage increased cultivation of Rwanda's second biggest revenue earner - tea. The country's other main crops are bananas, beans, sorghum and potatoes, mainly for domestic consumption or for export to Burundi.

Even today, when production has resumed in many areas, coffee exports stand at just 17,000 tonnes a year, in comparison with 45,000 tonnes in 1990. This is partly due to problems in the Rwandan economy, such as the lack of access to credit for farmers seeking to re-establish their plantations or set up new areas of cultivation, but also because it is difficult for Rwanda to recapture the markets which were lost nine years ago to other producers. Moreover, in the meantime competition in the market has become yet stiffer as the result of greatly increased production in some parts of Asia.