Succession battle begins slow burn

President Mwai Kibaki's appointment of Moody Awori as his number two has helped shore up the battered ruling coalition but problems are mounting for the new government. Paul Redfern reports.

Following the untimely death of the former Vice-President, Kijana Wamalwa at a London hospital, and after several weeks of deliberation by Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki, Moody Awori was appointed as Kenya's new Vice-President in late September. Awori was a long-standing Minister under former President Daniel arap Moi until he joined the mass exodus from KANU late last year.

The honeymoon period for the first ever non KANU government in Kenya is definitely over, and the appointment of Awori has been widely seen as an attempt to strengthen the shaky coalition that makes up Kenya's ruling NARC government, beset as it is by its internal differences especially over changes to the constitution.

Kibaki's choice of Awori was regarded as astute in helping to keep the balance amongst competing factions in the key leadership positions. A Luhya, like the late Vice-President Wamalwa, his appointment will be seen as critical in keeping a balance in the government and maintaining support for the President in the west of the country.

SUCCESSION RACE

Nevertheless his appointment has not been without criticism. For Awori, although a popular figure, was a big supporter of President Moi until late last year. A wealthy businessman, he is also 76 years old, which means that both of Kenya's most senior politicians are in their 70s.

As such, like Kibaki himself, Awori may not been seen as a credible Presidential candidate at the time of the next Presidential elections. If both Kibaki and Awori are not seen as strong leaders, this will only increase the already feverish race for succession that is developing within the ruling coalition.

A key factor in this succession could be the constitutional changes that are agreed, most particularly with regard to the role of a Prime Minister and what powers such a position should have. This position appears to have been 'reserved' for the powerful Luo politician Raila Odinga, (in a deal between the differing elements that made up NARC before the election). Odinga, of course, would not want the post should it prove to be just a titular position, but rivals remain concerned at the power base he would establish if it became a Premiership with real clout.

The battle over who might eventually succeed him is not the only problem Kibaki has been facing.

Few governments, the world over, have been rocked by as many tragedies as the new Kenyan government since it came to office. As well as Wamalwa, two other senior government officials and two NARC MPs have died since January of this year, whilst others suffered serious injuries in the plane crash in which Labour Minister Ahmed Khalif was killed.

Moreover, there remain doubts over the health of the President himself following his road accident shortly before the Presidential elections last December.

The uncertainties of what will happen next in the ongoing political debate over the constitution and concerns as to terrorist attacks have also had an effect on Western investment which was expected to rapidly return to Kenya following the defeat of the KANU government, widely perceived as corrupt. But now accusations of corruption are being levelled at the new government along with concerns that despite an initial period of activity, NARC has not delivered on its pre-election promises.

Business is also clearly waiting on whether or not the IMF will resume its lending to the Kenyan government, a decision on which had been unexpectedly delayed but is now rumoured to be announced early this month (November). However the British government says that the re-introduction of the IMF loan facility will not be the only factor deciding whether or not Nairobi receives extensive new aid from the British government next year. Britain is at present reconsidering its level of development assistance to Kenya and it acknowledges that a resumption of the IMF loan facility will be a factor in determining the level of financial support over the coming three years.

But London says that it is also critical how the Kenyan government continues to implement its poverty reduction strategy and tackles the issue of corruption. A spokeswoman for Britain's Department for International Development, said that DFiD was currently developing a new Country Plan for Kenya for the period 2003-7.

This she said, "will set out how we intend to support the Government's Economic Recovery Strategy. As part of this process, we will be considering the case for additional resources and the role of aid instruments including budget support."

British aid spending to Kenya was almost halved from its L52m peak in 2001 to just L27m last year following the suspension of the IMF loan facility. However it grew again this year to L42m and is expected to rise further next year in the event of the Kenyan government remaining on target with its economic reform and poverty reduction efforts.

Copyright International Communications Nov 2003
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