Gbagbo lifts Ouattara election ban

CÔTE D'IVOIRE

At the end of April, following talks mediated by South African president, Thabo Mbeki, President Laurent Gbagbo of Côte d'Ivoire finally backed down and agreed to allow Alassane Ouattara to stand in October's presidential election.

Former prime minister Ouattara has long been excluded from contesting any election for his Rally of Republicans (RDR) party because his family comes from Burkina Faso. Under current polling regulations, only those born in Côte d'Ivoire and whose parents were both born in Côte d'Ivoire are allowed to vote.

The Ivorian economy has been badly affected by political instability over the past five years. Gbagbo was believed to have won the 2000 election but power was seized by General Robert Guei until he was forced to step down by a popular uprising in favour of Gbagbo. In September 2002, conflict broke out between the broadly Muslim north and the Christian south, although the picture was complicated by the large number of both temporary and permanent immigrant workers in the country.

A ceasefire was agreed at the start of 2003 but the country has failed to function as a single nation since then as the northern rebels have retained control over a large swathe of the country. Repeated efforts to create a functioning government of national unity have failed.

Ouattara's exclusion was viewed as an attempt by the establishment to prevent those with 'northern' loyalties from taking power. The government feared that the country's Christian, southern majority would soon be outnumbered by a combination of northern Ivorian Muslims and immigrants from the Sahelian, Muslim states to the north.

Gbagbo's decision to lift the ban on Ouattara, at least for the October election, may allow his supporters to channel their energy into political campaigning rather than conflict.

Crucial political breakthrough

The ban had been one of the main sticking points in negotiations to bring about a lasting peace. A peace agreement was signed in Pretoria in early April and Mbeki announced the latest breakthrough as "a very important announcement because it means that the people of Ivory Coast are moving towards peace, they are moving towards democracy".

It is hoped that the election will pass off peacefully but it may take some time before the economy is able to recover. Foreign investors are obviously fighting shy of committing themselves to what was formerly one of Africa's most stable nations. They will not feel as confident about Côte d'lvoire's prospects for a long time to come.

Cocoa production, which provided the basis of the strong economy, could recover relatively quickly but many plantations relied on migrant seasonal workers from the north of the country, Burkina Faso and other states to the north. Given the nature of the conflict, it is unlikely that northerners would be as welcome in the south as before.

Moreover, many traders in the landlocked Sahelian states have switched from using Ivorian ports to their Ghanaian competitors. Ghana has responded by improving facilities for foreign traders and so they may continue to use the port of Tema, for example, now that the historic ties with their francophone southern neighbour have been broken.

Copyright International Communications Jun 2005
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