Warfare on the decline

Focus on Peace

According to the Human Security Report, there are fewer wars in the world now than over the past 13 years; most of these, unfortunately, are still in Africa. The good news is that conflicts in Africa are also reducing. Are we on the brink of a new, virtually conflict-free period of history? asks Neil Ford.

It has long been argued that international perceptions of Africa are far too negative, with news clips dominated by pictures of famine, flood and warfare. Yet it is unfortunately true that military conflict is a major disincentive to investment in many parts of the conflict, as well as posing an intolerable burden in terms of human suffering.

A recent report, however, has concluded that there are now fewer wars and fewer war casualties in the world as a whole, including Africa, than at any time for 13 years. Will this trend for peace last and can it help to change the world's view of the poorest but most colourful continent?

The Human security Report discovered that the number of armed conflicts in the world has fallen by over 40% during the past 13 years. Moreover, the trend from large wars to smouldering conflicts is also reflected in the fact that the average number of people killed per conflict has faUen from 38,000 in 1950 to just over 600 in 2002.

The main causes of the improvement have been the end of the Cold War, the end of colonialism, greatly increased intervention by the UN and a fall in the number of authoritarian regimes from 90 at the end of the 1970s to 30 by 2003.

The decline in battle or war associated casualties will certainly not be constant. For instance, it is likely that the ongoing violence in Darfur could result in a rise in the number of Africans killed during 2005 but the report's overall conclusion, that conflict is becoming less common in the world in general and also in Africa, does seem to hold.

The report was written by the Human security Centre at the University of British Columbia in Canada and was funded by a number of governments, including the UK and Canada.

On Africa, the Human security Report states: "In the 1970s and 1980s, most of the killing took place in the Middle East, Central and South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. By the end of the 1990s, more people were being killed in sub-Saharan Africa's wars than the rest of the world put together."

It continued: "Most of the world's conflicts are now concentrated in Africa. But even here there are signs of hope. A new dataset compiled for the Human security Report finds that between 2002 and 2003 (the last year for which there is data) the number of armed conflicts in Africa dropped from 41 to 35." Moreover, the number of Africans killed in all forms of political violence fell by 24% in Africa between 2002 and 2003.

The report listed the main factors that created an environment that encouraged armed conflict in Africa: "Poverty, crime, unstable and inequitable political institutions, ethnic discrimination, low state capacity and the 'bad neighbourhoods' of other crisis ridden states".

Discussing the conflict prone heart of the continent, it concluded: "The combination of pervasive poverty, declining GDP per capita, poor infrastructure, weak administration, external intervention and an abundance of cheap weapons, plus the effects of a major decline in per capita foreign assistance for much of the 1990, mean that armed conflicts in these countries are difficult to avoid, contain or end."

Root causes of war in Africa

The Human security Report aside, most analyses of the root causes of the wars, civil conflicts and various insurgencies that have blighted various parts of the continent since independence generally fall into three categories: it is the fault of a generation of African leaders who have been too rooted in 'big man' politics; the colonial powers left much of Africa in such a state and such a hurry that it is a surprise that war has not been more widespread; and non-African governments have interfered in African affairs for far too long, stirring up trouble and supporting various factions in each war.

There is no doubt that all three theories have some validity and all have contributed to a greater or lesser extent to destabilising a number of countries. Yet the extent of the impact of the third factor, external interference, has been highlighted in recent years precisely because of the reduction in conflict. It is surely no coincidence that the end of the Cold War and the collapse of apartheid took place 10 to 15 years ago. The actions of the Soviet Union, the US and some European governments in supporting and in some cases arming particular factions certainly helped to perpetuate a number of conflicts.

At the same time, apartheid-era South Africa managed to destabilise most of southern Africa by backing armed groups that opposed governments that in turn were hostile to South Africa. Once external supply lines were reduced or cut, conflicts in Mozambique and Angola, for example, fizzled out. A decade with greatly reduced external interference has resulted in a more peaceful continent.