ERITREA: Holding the line in the Horn

Rising tensions in the Horn of Africa are threatening to push Eritrea and Ethiopia over the line into renewed conflict over their territorial claims.

While parts of the Ethiopian economy are showing signs of strong growth, widespread poverty and political unrest continue to plague the country. At the same time, Eritrea is struggling to establish itself as a viable state and has few areas of economic virility.

Both governments seem to be diverting attention away from their domestic troubles towards the boundary dispute, while the United Nations continues to try to keep the peace.

Eritrea brought matters to a head in December, when Asmara decided to expel UN personnel from its territory with just 10 days notice. The move not only affects the operations of UN peacekeepers in the area but has succeeded in annoying the UN as a whole. The Eritrean government had already banned UN helicopter patrols in October but has failed to explain why it has begun to take its frustrations out on the UN forces. It is Ethiopia that has most fiercely vocalised its dissatisfaction with the 2000 peace deal, particular with regard to the fate of the border town of Badme.

However, it appears that Eritrea has interpreted the lack of progress on boundary delimitation by the UN as a sign that the peacekeeping mission is being manipulated by Addis Ababa. Ethiopian troops have yet to pull out of Badme, while the Eritrean government has objected to phone calls made by UN secretary general Kofi Annan to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. An Eritrea government spokesperson noted: "This unwarranted political meddling is principally aimed at letting the Ethiopian regime off the hook."

In recent months, both sides had moved large number of troops and armaments towards the border that is policed by just 3,330 UN soldiers in a 25km buffer zone, although Ethiopia has agreed to pull back more recently. The Ethiopian minister of foreign affairs, Seyoum Mesfin, commented: "Though we have seen no encouraging signs from Eritrea... Ethiopia is convinced that its compliance with the UN security Council's instruction is necessary even if doing so might have some risk for Ethiopia's security."

The head of the UN force, Jean-Marie Guehermo, has said: "Nobody should be complacent in the present situation. There is always a risk of war by miscalculation." However, he added: "We appreciate the decision of Ethiopia to pull back its troops from the frontline."

There is no doubt that the huge sums of money that the two states are spending on maintaining large armed forces in case of renewed fighting are exacerbating their respective economic woes. Money that could otherwise be spent on social and infrastructural projects is being used to maintain large numbers of military personnel.

The parcels of disputed land contain little of value and relatively few people live in the area but both Addis Ababa and Asmara view the border dispute as a matter of national pride, following the bloody border war that ended in December 2002 and which was a painful divorce between two political elites that were previously allies.

Copyright International Communications Jan 2006
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