Kibaki front-runner in December polls: the Kenya presidential and general elections are scheduled for December this year. The incumbent, Mwai Kibaki's popularity has been rising steadily on the back of an economic growth spurt and with the main opposition divided, appears set to win another term of office. Neil Ford reports

African Business, Nov, 2007 by Neil Ford

During most of a turbulent first term of office, Kenya's President Mwai Kibaki looked unlikely to secure a second electoral victory. Huge divisions within his National Rainbow Coalition (Narc), an unsuccessful campaign for a new constitution, personal health problems and corruption scandals all appeared to scupper his political fortunes. Yet a major realignment of the Kenyan political landscape over the past few months and an improving economic picture have combined to at least give him a fighting chance in December's presidential polls.

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At the end of September, Kibaki officially launched his election campaign determined to highlight the country's strengthening economy. Speaking to a huge crowd of supporters in Nairobi, he said that he deserved another term of office because of the current annual economic growth rate of 6.1%. He said: "Tell the people of Kenya the truth; that Kenya is better than it was five years ago, and will be far better off five years from now under the Party of National Unity."

Indeed, economic growth has averaged 4.7% a year since the 2002 poll, sharply up from the 2% averaged during the previous five-year term. Inflation has also been brought under control and the latest government spending plans are 20% higher than last year.

Growth has been strong in the tourism sector but agriculture has also been buoyant. Tea production is 12% up on last year and the benefits to the rural economy could boost rural political support.

One of the other main achievements of Kibaki's presidency to date has been the pledge on free primary school education. While there have been some problems with the policy, many more children have entered primary schools than previously and Kibaki has now promised to extend the free education policy to secondary schools if he is re-elected.

However, political opponents may be keener to highlight the failure of his attempts to tackle financial irregularities. Fighting corruption lay at the heart of his 2002 electoral manifesto but little progress has been made on either the Goldenberg or Anglo Leasing affairs, or on the wider problem in Kenyan society over the past five years. However, the revelation that the UK's Serious Fraud Office has launched a fresh investigation into the Anglo Leasing scandal because of the involvement of bank accounts in the Channel Islands, may boost his anti-corruption credentials. He will be seen as a leader who is not prepared to let sleeping dogs lie, no matter how complex the cases. The SFO has said that working with the assistance of the City of London police and the Kenyan Anti-Corruption Commission (KACC), it had decided to investigate a number of contracts between the Kenyan government and "the business entities collectively known as Anglo Leasing".

On the other hand, the government has attracted a great deal of negative publicity over a bill that parliament passed in September that would prevent MPs from having to declare their assets and would also grant an amnesty on any financial crimes committed by public officials prior to 2003.

Anti-corruption campaigners asked Kibaki to reject the legislation and indeed the president eventually decided not to sign it. The bill was sent back to parliament with an appeal for it to be amended to allow anti-corruption investigations to continue. Even if the required changes are made, some claim that the government lacks the political will to seriously tackle fraud. An added problem is the possibility of changes at the electoral commission. The contracts of the commission's chairman Samuel Kivuitu and his deputy Gabriel Mukele run out in early December, just before the elections, so a change of leadership just before Kenyans go to the polls could be unsettling. Foreign diplomats have asked Kibaki to retain the experienced officials already in place until at least after the elections.

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Divided opposition

Kibaki's main opponent in the election will be Raila Odinga, a stalwart of Kenyan politics and the candidate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Recent opinion polls give Odinga a lead over Kibaki but because of changes in the political map it is difficult to assess the current incumbent's chances.

Following the decline of both Narc and the former ruling party, Kenya African National Unity (Kanu), the ODM had been the main opposition party. However, the ODM's leaders, Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka, both wanted to stand for the presidency and so Musyoka left to form the ODM-Kenya party, leaving the rump ODM severely weakened and with a slimmer chance of electoral victory. With the disintegration of Narc, Kibaki is to stand as the candidate of the new Party of National Unity (PNU), which contains elements of his former alliance plus a host of other parties including Ford Kenya, Ford People, Narc Kenya and Shirikisho. Perhaps most surprisingly of all, it also includes Kanu, the party that had ruled Kenya from independence until 2002 and which had formed part of the ODM for a time.