Your next airline flight: worth the risk?

Risk Management, April, 1995 by Vernon L. Grose

Airline Risk Is Complex

Everyone loves and seeks simplicity. But airline risk is intricate. It involves much more than airplanes, aviators and airports. Getting a grasp of its diversity, therefore, is fundamental to assessing its risk.

No other public transportation mode utilizes as many facets of technology as does aviation. Each technological component - while contributing greatly to safe flight - also introduces complexity with its unavoidable risk that must be managed.

Note the major domains in Figure 2 that influence commercial air flights. Each of these domains, in turn, are comprised of many complicated factors that affect airline risk:

Aircraft. Flight characteristics, thrust-to-weight ratio, initial cost, hull insurance, reliability, wingspread, engine noise, capacity (passenger, freight and fuel), fuel efficiency, operational costs, pilot response, degree of flight automation, maintenance, crashworthiness, range, variety of types (general vs. air carrier), collision avoidance capability, simulation availability, variety of configurations per type, operational procedures (checklists, manual-to-automated ratio), emergency evacuation potential, model-to-model within type possibility for confusion, FOD (foreign object damage), criticality, fuel (capacity and type), landing gear (width, footprint weight, turning radius), weight (empty, payload, maximum gross), wingtip vortex generation and duration, ground-to-door height and emergency exits (number and type).

Airlines. Management comprehension of operational factors, value hierarchy (profit vs. safety), operational comprehension of profit factors, fare wars (number of options, restrictions), routes (competition and selection), equipment (acquisition, upkeep, replacement), greenmail influence, operational costs (labor, fuel, capital investment, food), integration of merged airlines (operational differences, values, histories), merger-takeover activity, frequent flyer programs (benefits, profit influence), published schedule credibility (on-time departure and arrival), airborne security (terrorism control procedures), trade association influence (Air Transport Association, Airline Pilots Association, Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association and the International Air Transport Association), classes of flight service (number, seating, fares, distribution), labor relations (union arbitration, health benefits), scheduling of flights (time of day, frequency-per-city) and public relations (reputation, image, customer satisfaction).

Airports. Location, weather characteristics (ground fog, windshear), flight approach-departure obstacles, gate access (location and quantity), proximity to mass population, security provisions, aircraft support facilities (fueling, deicing, repair), baggage handling capability, noise abatement requirements, approach-departure flight control, runways (number, condition, direction, width, length), landing aids, competition from other airports (airborne traffic, airline volume), ground transportation (capacity- frequency), emergency response capability, general aviation traffic density, aircraft traffic mixture, government control (local, county, state, federal), neighboring airport similarities (confusion for approach), local bird/wildlife population, aircraft handling equipment, flight traffic (density, scheduling), runway overrun distance, airport-to-airport traffic interference and passenger-to-aircraft distance.