Diesel wins the fuels race

Fleet Equipment, Nov 2007 by Martin, John

In July I predicted that diesel would be the transportation fuel of choice in the near future. In August I stated that diesel was winning the fuels race. Well, sports fans, the race is over and diesel has won. Here's why I say that.

Lately everyone has become sensitized about global warming. Al Gore recently received the Nobel Peace Prize for his work on global warming. Global warming is now on everyone's minds, and that's good for fuel economy (which is diesel's strong suit!).

A University of California study conducted for the California Air Resources Board (CARB) recommended that diesel fuel be considered an important part of helping California, reduce C02 emissions in light-duty vehicles. Last month CARB stated that this study will become the basis for what will become its regulations as early as 2010. California's goal is to reduce C02 emissions from light-duty vehicles by 25 percent by 2020.

The state also plans to reduce the "carbon intensity" of transport fuels by at least 10 percent by 2020. This will require significant (300 to 500 percent) increases in the use of "low carbon" fuels such as biodiesel, CNG, E10, E85, electricity, LNG, and LP gas. Cellulosic ethanol would get extra tax credits because it produces four to five times less greenhouse gases than corn-based ethanol.

California has a parallel regulation (State Law AB32), which requires a 20 percent cut in gasoline consumption in that same time. Significantly greater dieselization of the light-duty vehicle population is widely recognized as a necessity for California to meet its stated goals. There is even some talk of reducing the selling price of light-duty diesel fuel (not heavy-duty) to accelerate the conversion to diesel fuel.

Concurrently, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), a well-regarded organization of developed, democratic countries operating under free-market conditions also entered the fray. The OECD recently released a report critical of biofuel subsidies. It stated that biofuels will cut energy-related emissions by just 3 percent at best, and they would adversely affect food prices. The OECD urged member countries to concentrate on carbon taxes as the preferred means to reduce energy consumption.

These types of influences are accelerating us rapidly down the diesel fuel highway. When speaking about an advanced gasoline-fueled engine recently, GM R&D acknowledged that the expected 15 percent fuel economy improvement wasn't "half as good" as the savings expected with diesel fuels. Cummins also recently stated that its clean diesel pickup truck engines offered 50 percent better fuel economy than comparable gasoline engines.

Also keep in mind that B100 biodiesel fuel has eight to 10 percent less energy content than straight diesel fuel while ethanol has half the energy content of gasoline. This means bio-diesel (B5 or B10) will have a negligible influence on diesel fuel economy. E85 ethanol, on the other hand, would be expected to cut gasoline fuel economy in half.

Chrysler Corp. planners are now predicted 15 percent of sales of their recreational vehicles will be diesel in the next decade. Cummins shows similar optimism about its light-duty pickup engines. Ford just unveiled an "Econetec" diesel passenger car for the European market late this year. Mercedes' new "Bluetec" diesels are headed for the US market later this year, and Volkswagen will introduce "the world's cleanest diesel car" next spring. VW also is predicting 18 to 20 percent of new car sales will be diesels by 2015.

All the major auto manufacturers are rushing diesel-fueled passenger cars to the US market. Volkswagen is even touring the country with a "Dieselization Tour" to extol the virtues of diesel-powered passenger cars. Now we hear that major US. oil refiners are designing new refinery processes to maximize diesel fuel instead of gasoline production.

The battle is over, and diesel fuel has won! I just hope we can produce sufficient diesel fuel at a reasonable price to fuel all the vehicles.

By John Martin

Contributing Editor