India: Bt cotton euphoria ebbing

Asian Textile Business, Jan 2003

Last year, there was tremendous excitement about the prospects for Bt cotton, making a significant impact on the cotton scenario in India, but the euphoria has now given way to cautious optimism. It is being realized that there is going to be no quick revolution, after all. Even if genetically modified (GM) cotton seeds make a sizeable difference to yields and quality, it will take a few years for the overall impact to be felt.

In the current season, about 50,000 hectares have been planted with Bt cotton, according to Monsanto India. The area under cotton this season is 7.8 million hectares, compared to 8.73 million last season. Though the new crop has started arriving in the market, not many are talking about Bt cotton because pest attacks this season were generally subdued. In addition, a not-so-good monsoon has also lowered the yields of Bt cotton.

At present, the scales are quite small. Unless Bt cotton is sewn in at least 10% more land (about 1 million hectares), its impact will remain limited. Even more important is the need for a few success stories. If farmers opting for Bt cotton were able to earn significantly better profits than others, then only the new GM culture would be considered successful. However, as the scale of Bt plantings grows, there may be problems such as the adulteration of seeds and erratic results reported by farmers.

Meanwhile, the cotton crop for the current season has been officially estimated at 15.2 million bales of 170 kg each, compared to last year's 15.8 million. Imports for 2001-02 have been revised upwards from 2.2 million to 2.47 million bales. In 2002-03, imports are still expected to be 2 million bales, but if the quality of Indian cotton turns out to be as good as is expected by trade and industry, imports may decline significantly. Indian prices firmed up to some extent in November, but are still well below global prices. There are no signs of an eminent flare up in the near future.