Economic analysis and policy implications of fertility in Middle East and North African countries

Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, Jan, 2006 by Azmat Gani, Christopher Ngassam

Attention needs to be focussed towards controlling high levels of population growth. Of vital importance is a close check on fertility rates because they can be a strong factor contributing to a speedy rate of decline in population growth. Such forms of checks on population growth can improve the quality of human capital, in particular through improving maternal productivity. It is noted by Shultz (1997), that any investments able to increase individual lifetime productivity can contribute to economic growth and socio-demographic development.

In this spirit, this paper aims to provide an economic analysis of fertility inter-relationships on the basis of pooled cross-sectional data for the MENA region. The next section presents a theoretical discussion of the channels through which fertility is affected. Sample size and data are discussed in section three followed by empirical regression results in section four. A conclusion is presented in section five.

CHANNELS THROUGH WHICH FERTILITY IS AFFECTED

This section presents a discussion of several economic and non-economic factors that are likely to influence MENA high fertility rates.

Income

The level of income can influence fertility rates. Economic choice models (Becker and Lewis, 1973; Schultz, 1976) argue that if babies are regarded as consumption goods than their demand will compete against the demand for other consumption goods. Therefore, the benefits of having babies must be outweighed against the cost: the allocation of parental time for raising the babies and the possible associated loss of income. In particular, a rise in real income would tend to reduce the fertility rate as rising income means children are needed less as producer and investment goods. In a similar vain, Temple (1999) notes that if people perceive that incomes are likely to rise, and possibly the returns to human capital, they may decide to have a fewer children. Thus, theoretically, the demand for babies and eventually fertility should be inversely correlated with income.

Infant Mortality Rates

The relationship between fertility and infant mortality rates is likely to be bi-directional, that is, infant mortality may affect fertility and fertility may affect infant mortality (Rosenzweig and Schultz, 1983 and Schultz, 1993). In this study, high infant mortality rates are hypothesised to influence fertility rates, that is, if large numbers of children die, parents must have large numbers of children to ensure at least some survive.

Female Education

Educating females is one of the best investments for future socio-economic welfare (The World Bank, 1980) and is found to be associated with lower fertility (Barro, 1991 and Schultz, 1993). Greater female literacy could reduce fertility rate in several ways: (1). Literate women are more likely to know how to plan family size; (2). Literacy confers status on women, and women can use this higher status in the family to advance the interests of the family, including size; (3). The acquisition of education delays the age of marriage; and (4). Education also complements the effectiveness of family planning programs and the opportunities for work. Hence, higher education is expected to reduce fertility as educated women are likely to comprehend more clearly the logic of fertility control including a rethink of age-old customs resulting in a change of attitudes and motivations (Ghatak, 1995). It is also noted that educated mothers would be expected to value more highly education for their children, and would more likely make a conscious tradeoff between quality of life and the number of children (Dasgupta, 1993). Thus, female education is hypothesised to promote decline in fertility and to act as a force behind the demographic change.