Economic analysis and policy implications of fertility in Middle East and North African countries

Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, Jan, 2006 by Azmat Gani, Christopher Ngassam

The coefficient, female education, is positive and statistically significant and inconsistent with our a priori expectations. Barro (1991), using data for 100 countries, shows that high school enrolment rates contributed to lower fertility rates. Similarly, Shultz (1993) found that female education is also associated with lower fertility. High levels of female education is also found to be negatively correlated with fertility in a cross-section of Pacific Island countries (Gani, 1999). The results obtained here for the variable female education is not surprising given low female literacy rates. For example, current average female literacy rate for Arab states is 46.4 percent, much lower than 62.9 percent, the average for all developing countries (UNDP, 1999, Table 2).

Evidence of a fairly strong impact of urbanisation on fertility was found. The coefficient urbanisation is consistent with theoretical expectations. At the standard 1 percent level of significance, the coefficient of urbanisation is negative and statistically significant; giving strong evidence that urbanisation is inversely associated with fertility. Urban areas provide better accessibility to health, education and gainful employment.

The coefficient for female labour force participation rate is consistent with a priori expectations, negative and statistically significant, providing strong evidence that increases in female labour force participation rate is associated with lower levels of fertility. The trend in the developing world is for women to become better educated. While MENA female literacy and employment rates are still lower than their male counterpart, the gap is gradually narrowing. As MENA women gain skills and abilities, this is likely to shift their position in the labour force. The increase in female participation in the MENA labour force is revealed in the participation rates. For example, the average MENA female percent of the labour force in 1997 was 26 compared to 24 in 1980 (The World Bank, 1999, Table 3). Although this number is lower than the average for the low and middle-income economies, the existing level of female involvement in the labour force is a positive development in terms of improving the status of women.

Family planning as measured by dummy variable is consistent with a priori expectations; the negative and statistically significant coefficient providing confirmation that family planning services are associated with lower fertility rates. The results are consistent with that of Shultz (1993) and Gani (1999) where the association between family planning and fertility is found to be negative.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

This study provided economic analysis of fertility interrelationships in MENA, and has helped to identify the relative contributions of the different influences reasonably well. Our results provide strong evidence that family planning, urbanisation and female labour force participation are confirmed as inversely related to fertility rates. Surprisingly, a strong positive association is found between fertility rate, incomes, infant mortality rate and female education. Several outcomes of the empirical analysis are similar to results obtained by earlier studies involving non-MENA countries and regions. The analysis presented has some policy implications. One reservation is that while cross-sectional regression analysis as adopted in this study is a popular method, the appropriate policies will depend on a country's particular demographic situation.