Avian flu outbreak could cost Scotland GBP26bn in 10 years HEALTH:

0 Comments | Sunday Herald, The, Nov 20, 2005 | by Jenifer Johnston

THE economy stands to lose GBP26 billion, a quarter of the population will be infected, civil unrest will occur and all public gatherings will be banned. This is the chilling worst-case scenario of an avian flu pandemic's effect on Scotland.

Research conducted by VisitScotland into the economic impact of avian flu has painted a frightening picture of what will happen if a pandemic reaches the UK. The country will enter a period of "potential economic meltdown" from which it could take 10 years to recover.

Co-author Professor Stephen Page, of the marketing department of Stirling University, will present the findings at the Scotland United conference tomorrow in St Andrews.

The study, titled Best Practice - VisitScotland's Prepared Response To An Influenza Pandemic, urges businesses to plan ahead in case the avian flu virus mutates and becomes able to easily spread from human to human. So far avian flu has led to the cull of millions of birds across Asia and led to the deaths of more than 60 people. The British government has predicted the virus could lead to up to 750,000 deaths in the UK.

In the best-case scenario the virus would not develop into an international pandemic, but Scotland would still lose GBP3.6bn from its GDP over a two-year period, and tourism from lucrative markets in the US, Australia and New Zealand would be severely affected.

However, it is the worst-case scenario - entitled It's Here! - which gives most cause for concern. As the influenza virus enters Scotland and causes havoc for around two years, researchers predict the wider economy would be severely affected. In terms of the tourist market they suggest that domestic tourism would drop by 40- 50% and international tourism by 70-90%.

Airports would become fearful places where travellers would have to disinfect every time they fly, and "there may be a fear of travelling in confined spaces with large groups of people", meaning trains and buses would be shunned in favour of the car, pushing up fuel prices.

With up to 25% of the population infected and other working adults having to "care/grieve for family members" businesses would start to fail, leading to unemployment, schools closing down and, in an extreme situation, disruption of electricity and water supplies.

The report also warns that "if civil unrest occurs in Scotland - media portrayals of events associated with the pandemic may cause long-term damage to the reputation of the areas involved".

Dr Ian Yeoman, a scenario planner for VisitScotland and a co- author of the report, told the Sunday Herald: "There would be a significant economic impact if there was a pandemic in the very near future. If it does come it will undoubtedly have an impact on tourism."

Yeoman added that although Scotland is "well ahead of the game" in terms of planning, every business has to start thinking about the future.

"The flu pandemic will affect the tourism industry as a whole, but other businesses have to think about this too.

How would your business cope if 25% of your staff are off sick, and others have to be at home to look after sick children or elderly parents? In the real world family comes first, not business interests.

"But with good contingency planning it should be possible for companies now to examine rotas, deliveries and marketing strategy and think about how they're going to cope with the pandemic."

Barry McPherson of VisitScotland said that although the study makes depressing reading, "it will allow the tourism sector, and hopefully other types of business, to act quickly when the pandemic comes".

NEED TO KNOW

THE FACTS

VistScotland have commissioned a scenario report into the impact of an influenza pandemic on the Scottish tourism industry.

BACKGROUND

Human cases of avian flu were first seen in Hong Kong in 1997. There have been 130 confirmed cases, with 67 deaths.

NEED TO KNOW MORE?

www. scotexchange. net

Information site on Scottish tourism,

www. stforum. co. uk

Scottish Tourism Forum

www. visitscotland. com

National Scottish tourist body