May Day Meltdown
Independent on Sunday, The, May 4, 2008 by Jane Merrick
Elections 2008: Government in crisis
Brown at risk after disaster at the polls
Less than a year after Labour changed its leader and promised to listen, the party has crumbled to its lowest point in 40 years. Jane Merrick and Brian Brady report
Five hours before the polls closed on Thursday night, Gordon Brown came face to face with Tony Blair in the Crystal Ballroom of the luxury Mayfair Hotel, central London. As he prepared for a miserable evening of council results, and on 1 May - the date that will forever symbolise Labour's 1997 victory - the Prime Minister must have found the sight of a tanned and laid-back Mr Blair particularly galling.
Beneath gold chandeliers, the pair shook hands and exchanged thin smiles at a fundraising event for the Middle East during their first public encounter for several months. Hours later, Mr Brown witnessed Labour's worst local election performance for four decades and the turning point was described by MPs as the Government's "John Major moment".
Cabinet ministers urged him to "get a grip" and warned Mr Brown was being personally "punished" for the 10p tax fiasco. He was warned that he has six months to change the party's fortunes.
And for many in the Labour Party, the spectre of Mr Blair only served to remind them of the electoral success they once enjoyed. Ministers are now openly suggesting that Mr Brown, who arrived in Downing Street last June promising change from the Blair era, needs to emulate his predecessor with a programme of populist policies to win back voters and rescue his leadership.
After the appeal to help the Palestinian economy at the Mayfair Hotel, Mr Blair, wearing an expensive black suit and grey silk shirt, moved on to dinner at Scott's with old friend Peter Mandelson and Lakshmi Mittal, Britain's richest man. Fellow diners included the actors Ralph Fiennes, Susan Sarandon and Sir Michael Caine.
For Mr Brown, there was no Hollywood glamour awaiting him at Labour's functional offices in Victoria Street, Westminster, where he and his wife Sarah thanked party activists for their hard work during the local elections campaign.
But there was little to celebrate. On Thursday evening the picture already looked bleak, and by the time all the results were in Labour had lost 331 council seats. After a painfully slow counting process lasting 15 hours, the final humiliation for Mr Brown came shortly before midnight on Friday when control of London was wrenched from Ken Livingstone by Boris Johnson.
The governing party no longer had control of a council in the south-east of England. Former Labour fortresses in the Welsh valleys also fell. Labour were pushed into third place nationally, behind the Liberal Democrats, with a projected 24 per cent share of the vote, while the Conservatives took 44 per cent - enough to give David Cameron a 100-seat Commons majority.
A hundred Labour MPs, including the Home Secretary, Jacqui Smith, and Secretary of State for Transport, Ruth Kelly, are at risk of losing their seats.
For the Tory leader, the results signified that his party's years of opposition might be drawing to a close. Mr Cameron said it was a "big moment". "The tide is moving in our direction. This is because we have changed."
For the Liberal Democrats, the second place was hailed by Nick Clegg as proof that they were "regaining momentum" - but their 25 per cent share suggested they are being squeezed by the Tories.
One Labour MP, Derek Wyatt, whose majority of 79 in Sittingbourne and Sheppey is likelyto be obliterated at the next election, described the night as Mr Brown's "John Major moment" - the point in 1995 when Labour trounced the Tories in the council elections before sweeping to power two years later. Mr Wyatt warned that the Prime Minister was no longer in control of events - a sobering echo of Norman Lamont's devastating claim that the Major government was "in office but not in power".
The MP's anger reflected the concerns of dozens of Labour MPs since Mr Brown's honeymoon came to an abrupt end with the non- election last October. To add to Mr Brown's misery, David Pitt- Watson, a City high-flyer appointed as Labour's general secretary after the fiasco of the David Abrahams hidden donations scandal, quit before he started. It was not because of the disastrous results, but he had agreed to wait until after the election to minimise the damage.
On Friday morning, a careworn Prime Minister addressed the country from Downing Street and promised to "listen and lead", learn lessons and "move forward". But the message that Mr Brown is now "listening" fell flat with some MPs, especially as he plans to push ahead with plans for 42-day detention for terror suspects.
He will attempt a relaunch in the next fortnight with a draft Queen's Speech and invite activists to contribute policies to the party's forum later this summer. A reshuffle, to freshen-up the Cabinet, is on the cards within weeks. But MPs wonder whether the electorate has passed the point of no return and no amount of relaunches and ministerial changes can halt the end of the New Labour era.