GOOD GORD

GORDON Brown is heading for a crucial by-election victory which will save his premiership, a Sunday Mirror poll predicts today.

Labour has a 14-point lead over the Scottish Nationalists in Glasgow East ahead of the July 24 contest, according to the Sunday Mirror/ICM Research poll.

It puts Labour on 47 per cent, with the SNP on 33, the Lib Dems on nine and the Tories in fourth place on seven per cent.

The survey is a huge boost for the Prime Minister as it follows speculation he would face calls to quit if Labour lost the seat.

But Labour will see its 13,507 majority slashed in the seat where it commanded 61 per cent of votes cast at the 2005 election.

Our poll shows a 15 per cent swing to the Scottish Nationalists, who have almost doubled their backing from 17 per cent in 2005. The survey puts Labour candidate Margaret Curran on course for victory with a potential majority of 4,000 to 5,000 votes.

It is the first authoritative poll of the impending by-election for Glasgow East - Labour's third safest seat in Scotland and 25th safest in the UK.

Labour had considered the constituency such a safe seat that it does not even have full records of its own supporters in the area.

The contest has been sparked by the resignation of Labour MP David Marshall, 67, who is standing down due to ill health.

A Labour victory would follow two crushing by-election defeats for Mr Brown and a series of gloomy opinion polls. The Tories snatched the safe seat of Crewe and Nantwich in May and pushed Labour into a humiliating fifth place in the fight to replace London Mayor Boris Johnson in Henley last month.

Tory leader David Cameron toured the constituency last week, but support for the Tories has flatlined there at seven per cent - the same as in the 2005 election.

Allies of Mr Brown were last night pleased with their poll lead, but insisted Labour faced a tough battle to be sure of victory.

A senior source close to the PM said:

"Traditionally, the turn-out in by-elections can be low.

"We need to pour all our efforts into making sure our supporters get out and vote.

It's going to be a long, hard graft."

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 516 adults across Glasgow East by telephone on July 10 and 11.

BY-ELECTION VOTING INTENTIONS ICM POLL

Labour 47%

SNP 33%

Tories 7%

Lib Dems 9%

vincent.moss@mgn.co.uk

Copyright 2008 MGN LTD
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.