Fewer than half certain on Iraq war

0 Comments | Oakland Tribune, Aug 14, 2003 | by Thomas Hargrove

Public confidence in America's military involvement in Iraq has eroded recently with 42 percent of U.S. adults now describing themselves as "not certain" that committing troops to war was the right thing to do.

Certainty that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction immediately before the war also has declined, according to a survey of 1,048 people conducted by Scripps Howard News Service and Ohio University.

The poll, taken during two weeks ending Aug. 12, found a broad drop in commitment for U.S. involvement in Iraq over a similar survey taken in early May, shortly after President Bush declared an end to major military operations there. At that time, fewer than a third of Americans said they had doubts about the correctness of the war and the military occupation that followed.

Bush's approval rating also has dropped, with 52 percent saying they approve of what he has done as president, a 12-percentage point decline in less than three months and the lowest number yet recorded by the polls since he took office in January 2001. The general feeling that America is headed "in the right direction" has taken a hit recently as well.

Scripps Howard and Ohio University conducted a series of surveys during the military buildup in Iraq, immediately before hostilities began and shortly after an end to major fighting was declared. The polls found significant divisions within the public over whether the United States should commit troops, with support highest immediately after Bush declared an end to major combat May 1.

Participants in the latest poll were told: "As you know, the United States sent troops into Iraq to force it to disarm its weapons of mass destruction. Are you absolutely certain, pretty certain or not certain that this was the correct thing to do?" Thirty-two percent said they are "absolutely certain," 21 percent were "pretty certain" and 42 percent were "not certain." (Five percent were undecided.)

In May, 41 percent were "absolutely certain," 25 percent "pretty certain," 31 percent "not certain" and 3 percent undecided about the troop commitment.

The latest poll found that women and all racial and ethnic minorities generally express the greatest reservations about the war and the military occupation that followed. The only group that showed overwhelming confidence in the Iraqi operations has been self- described "strong Republicans." The decline in confidence was most apparent among Democrats and political independents.

The poll found a further decline in confidence that "Iraq had weapons of mass destruction immediately before the United States began the war." Twenty-seven percent said they are "absolutely certain" Saddam Hussein had access to such weapons, down from 32 percent in May.

Still, the poll found considerable support for Bush's underlying principle of the use of pre-emptive force. Half of adults in the survey said they "agree" or "strongly agree" with "our policy of preventive military attacks on countries that we feel threaten our national security." Twenty-four percent said they "disagree" or "strongly disagree," while slightly more than a quarter said they are undecided or uncommitted over the policy.

The poll was conducted at the Scripps Survey Research Center at Ohio University. Adult residents of the United States were interviewed by telephone July 30 through Aug. 12 in a study funded by a grant from the Scripps Foundation.

The poll had an overall 4 percentage point margin of error, although the margin increases when examining attitudes among small groups within the poll.