Absentee votes on the rise

0 Comments | Oakland Tribune, Oct 21, 2006 | by Harrison Sheppard

SACRAMENTO -- Surging demand to vote by mail could mean that for the first time, more Californians will cast absentee ballots this November than will actually vote at the polls on Election Day.

Once the domain of overseas travelers and homebound seniors, absentee voting has been made easier by changes in state laws -- and busy voters have jumped at the chance to save time and still have their voices heard.

"As we all get more and more hectic lives, absentee is a very attractive way to vote," said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.

Two decades ago, only

9 percent of general-election voting was by absentee ballot. By last year's special election, absentee voting was up to 40 percent, and in the June primary, nearly 47 percent of votes cast were absentee.

"We can expect the November general election will have even higher numbers requesting and subsequently casting absentee ballots throughout the state," Secretary of State Bruce McPherson wrote last week.

But experts warn the trend has made campaigns longer and more expensive and has raised new concerns about privacy and security.

"The old adage used to be just campaign in the last

10 days because nobody paid attention," said Allan Hoffenblum, a political analyst who publishes the California Target Book analyzing state elections. "They now start wellover 30 days out, because they know a lot of voters start at least a month before the election. It's changed the tactics."

And Kim Alexander, president of the California Voter Foundation, said that while the boom in absentee ballots has made it more convenient to vote -- and thereby may boost turnout -- it also has an isolating effect.

"In California, we don't have a lot of civic rituals as it is," Alexander said. "Voting at your polling place is one of the few civic rituals millions of Californians engage in. I think it would be a mistake to take that experience away."

Advocates of absentee voting say it allows voters more time to think through their votes -- particularly critical on a ballot like this year's in which many voters will be making more than 30 choices.

Still, experts say absentee voting also raises the question of whether people who vote at home may be pressured by others in the household to vote a certain way -- unlike a polling place, where there is a truly secret ballot.

Voting by mail also depends on the postal service, and McPherson recently expressed concerns about such costs this year.

In at least 15 counties, McPherson said, the ballot is so big that it will cost 63 cents to mail rather than the standard 39-cent stamp. And that has McPherson concerned voters will use insufficient postage and their ballots will be kicked back to them.

McPherson has asked the U.S. Postal Service to work with local county election officials to ensure heavier ballots with insufficient postage are delivered on time.

Some experts trace the first big acknowledgment of the value of absentee voting to the George Deukmejian-Tom Bradley governor's race in 1982. During that battle, some media outlets used exit polls and early returns to declare Bradley the winner on Election Day. But Republicans had made a big push for absentee ballots that year and the final results gave the governorship to Deukmejian.

So now, election campaigns must essentially run two phases. Campaign managers know they need to reach voters earlier with advertising while also continuing the traditional last-minute blitz for the shrinking but still substantial number of voters who turn out on Election Day.

Political consultant Bill Carrick noted that many absentee voters also wait until the last minute to cast their ballots.

"It drives the campaigns crazy, because they know people have gotten the ballot, and they haven't voted," said Carrick, who is working with the Phil Angelides gubernatorial campaign.

"Is that ballot filled out, sitting in an outbox for three weeks, while people wait to send it at the last minute? Or is that ballot unfilled out and the voter truly undecided? Those are the kinds of questions that give campaign managers gray hair and high blood pressure."