Future looks iffy for shuttle replacement

0 Comments | Oakland Tribune, Feb 6, 2008 | by Robert Block

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- The rocket that NASA is betting on to return humans to space after the space shuttle retires is in trouble.

Assailed by critics, hobbled by a lack of money and beset by technical problems, the Ares I launch vehicle is suffering from a growing perception it is another NASA project that will never get off the ground.

In particular, some critics have urged that NASA ditch the untested Ares, a so-called "stick" rocket powered by five segments of the solid rocket boosters used on the shuttle, in favor of the Atlas V401, which is already used by the military and CIA to reliably launch spy satellites into orbit.

Their arguments got a big boost Tuesday when a private startup space company, Bigelow Aerospace, announced that it is pursuing plans to use the Atlas V to put humans into space by 2012, three years before NASA plans to send its first manned Ares flight into low Earth orbit.

According to Bigelow spokesman Chris Reed, if everything goes according to plan, the company will launch 12 manned and unmanned missions from Cape Canaveral in 2012 to build an orbiting hotel from inflatable modules and fly space tourists to it.

The announcement came at a critical time for the Ares I, which NASA is developing at its Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. The rocket is the heart of the Constellation program, which is supposed to also build a new Orion crew capsule that will get astronauts back to the moon by 2020.

Congress is monitoring reports that tests show the rocket would shake so much during liftoff that it would be unsafe for astronauts. This "oscillation" is apparently caused by vibrations of its multiple solid rocket boosters that combine into a potentially deadly shaking.

And some senior officials inside NASA say privately that the oscillation is just one of many problems with Ares I; the others have yet to make the news.

Meanwhile, top space scientists and exploration advocates are preparing for a conference at Stanford University next week to question whether the Constellation program is on the right track.

Ares' biggest champion, NASA's Administrator Michael Griffin, has dismissed reports about the rocket's vibrations and other technical difficulties as nothing more than the normal engineering problems.

"I've rarely seen more of a mountain made out of less of a molehill," he told the Space Transportation Association in Washington, D.C., last month.

But dissenting engineers and scientists -- many of whom have opposed the Ares project from day one -- are unmoved by Griffin's arguments and are lobbying presidential candidates hard to abandon Ares if they get into the White House.

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Space policy experts say that there are currently two to four Atlas V launches a year. If Bigelow's deal goes through, the increased number of launches could drastically lower per-launch costs and change the price structure of the U.S. commercial launch market. Atlas V is made by United Launch Alliance, a joint venture of Lockheed Martin and Boeing Co.

Robert T. Bigelow, the founder of the Budget Suites of America hotel chain, has committed $500 million of his own money toward building a commercial space station by 2015.

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In 2006 and 2007, his company launched into orbit two unmanned blimp-like pods -- called Genesis 1 and Genesis 2 -- using Dnepr boosters from Russia's Kosmotras Yasny Cosmodrome. The company went to Lockheed last year looking to lower its costs.

"I don't think anyone could deny the excellent record and pedigree of the Atlas V401 as a quality choice to be upgraded to carry human passengers," said Bigelow on Tuesday.

David Markham, president of Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services, added his upbeat assessment. "The Atlas V is ideal to provide commercial crew and cargo transportation for this pioneering commercial space venture."

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Still, much remains to be done before the deal is a reality.

Bigelow has yet to build a crew capsule capable of taking tourists into space. And Lockheed needs to modify its rocket -- which until now has lifted only satellites and robots -- to be able to carry people.

But Lockheed insists that its studies, including one done in 2004 for NASA, show that the Atlas V can be fitted with the necessary escape systems and safety devices at a modest cost.

NASA considered, and rejected, the use of Atlas V to replace the space shuttle, which is scheduled to be retired in 2010. The agency concluded that modifying the rocket to carry the heavy Orion crew capsule into space would be more costly and less safe than the Ares design.

Experts expect that the capsule that Bigelow will end up using will be much smaller and lighter than Orion.

NASA officials say that the agency does not see the private sector's use of Atlas V as either a condemnation of Ares or a threat. Griffin has in fact welcomed Bigelow's efforts.

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In his speech last month defending Ares, he said that if a private company can lift humans into low earth orbit, NASA will adjust its plans and use Ares primarily to get to the moon.