Playoff picks

Topeka Capital-Journal, The, Feb 3, 2008

What a quandry. Got trapped earlier this week in saying the Giants were my upset special of the week, not realizing it would be K-State over KU. Now I'm stuck. Any chance of getting off by saying I was taking the Giants and the 13 points?NFL predictions by Rick Dean

Last week: 1-1 n Playoffs: 6-4 n Season: 163-90 (.643)The matchup: I really do like the Giants, you know. Just not enough to feel good about picking them for what would be the biggest Super Bowl upset since Joe Willie Namath and the Jets beat the Baltimore Colts in Super Bowl III and ended the myth of NFL superiority.

I've liked the Giants the past couple weeks, in fact. Just couldn't find the iron to pick them in Dallas, where I thought they had a real good chance, or in Green Bay, where I thought they were as good a cold-weather team as the Packers.

Taking them now against maybe the best all-around team in NFL history is folly, pure and simple. But fools rush in, as the adage goes, where wise men never go. And sometimes they stumble into a winning bet by bucking conventional wisdom.

I like what the Giants did in Week 17 at Foxborough in playing New England to a 38-35 game, one in which the Pats had everything riding on the line in their quest to finish 16-0.

Yes, Tom Brady shredded the Giants secondary for 356 yards and two touchdowns then. But I don't see him going off like that again unless Randy Moss - limited to one catch in each of the past two playoffs victories - gets his act together on football's biggest stage. History suggests that Moss wilts more than rises when the real heat is on. Prediction - fellow Pat Wes Welker will finish with more catches and yards than Moss, and the Giants' Plaxico Burress will surpass them both.

Beyond that, there is one realistic sceneario that gives the Giants their best chance for the upset. That is a fierce pass rush from Osi Umenyiora or splendid old pro Michael Strahan that takes Brady and his bad ankle out of his game. New York's ability to apply pressure with its front four, with occasional help from a blitzing linebacker or safety, allows the Giants to keep six or seven defenders in coverage - their best hope of limiting Brady and a Patriots offense that isn't as unstoppable as it was earlier.

At quarterback, Brady clearly has the edge and the cool over Eli Manning, who is due for a dropoff after playing so well in the late- season rush that saw New York win six of its last eight games. The odds are against young Manning having a big game, but if he keeps his cool and avoids the big mistake, he can keep the Giants close, which will be the key.

And I do think this will be close at the end. I really like the Giants when given the points. And having made a commitment earlier in the week, there's no point in hitting the breaks at the end of a wild ride.

The prediction: Giants 28, Patriots 27GIANTS (11-5) VS PATRIOTS (16-0)

2 p.m. today, WIWB 13 (Cox Cable 12)