Commentary: LSRs, dual polarization radar and more

During this past June I attended the American Meteorological Society Conference on Broadcast Meteorology in Denver.

While the conference was geared to the needs of broadcast meteorologists, there were some pertinent nuggets of information pertaining to forensic meteorological issues.

In one presentation on various National Weather Service severe weather products, the topic of "local storm reports" or LSRs, arose.

We have usd LSRs many times in our efforts to reconstruct past weather and attorneys should be aware of their significance, particularly in heavy weather situations that occurred some distance from primary weather observing stations.

An LSR is issued by a local National Weather Service during and after a storm or significant weather event, and is garnered from information communicated by trained spotters, the media, law enforcement and, sometimes, the general public.

LSRs are issued for a variety of storms and events, including hurricanes, floods, severe thunderstorms, high winds, tornadoes, blizzards, ice storms and lake effect events.

In Western New York, LSRs are especially helpful in gauging the impact of winter storms, especially lake effect events, in outlying areas well removed from official reporting stations at airports in Rochester and Buffalo. Likewise, in the summer, LSRs are helpful in reconstructing the impact of localized phenomena such as thunderstorms. This past May, for example, LSRs helped to assess the coverage and impact of a major hail storm that devastated some farms in the Rochester area.

Another helpful presentation at the conference dealt with a new radar technology coming to a Doppler Radar installation near you -- "dual-polarization weather radar."

The physics involved in precipitation detection with this new radar technology will result in significant improvements, including better detection of precipitation particles at greater ranges, enhanced identification of hail and ice in the clouds and a clearer delineation of the rain-snow line. All of this allows forensic meteorologists to draw more distinct conclusions with respect to analyzing major snow and ice events of the recent past. Unfortunately, the new technology is not yet online and won't be for at least several months.

Finally, the topic of climate change continues to be a source of a major disconnect between those who sit in the "ivory tower" and those who work in "the trenches."

There are probably a number of reasons why many climate researchers and operational meteorologists fall on opposite sides of the issue of whether mankind is causing climate change and irreparable harm to the environment. I believe one reason for this disconnect is that we operational meteorologists work with computer models every day and see their limitations when forecasts go awry. (We also must deal with the understandably irate public when a forecast is blown.)

Many climate researchers, however, make predictions that won't be verified for decades or even centuries, meaning most of them, and most of us, won't be around to verify their accuracy. Imagine, for example, a meteorologist appearing on television and making a forecast that in the year 2088 Rochester will have a winter that is 2 degrees warmer than normal and the climate will be in ruin.

It is perhaps partly for this reason that an online survey conducted for the conference showed a third of broadcast meteorologists consider the "sky is falling -- we are to blame -- the world is doomed" global warming mantra to be a scam.

Kevin Williams is president of weather-track.com and director of meteorology for News 10NBC.

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