Keating not counting on Democrats to make party switch

Journal Record, The (Oklahoma City), Nov 17, 2000 by Ray Carter The Journal Record

Despite a rash of overtures to potential party switchers in the past week, Gov. Frank Keating said Thursday that although he wouldn't mind having a Republican majority to work with, he doubts any Democrats would make the switch.

"I don't really see that happening," he said. "Because I think the Democrats are very loyal to their party, and it's going to be probably fought at the ballot box and not as the result of vote switching."

Last week's elections gave Republicans a pickup of eight seats, leaving Democrats with a narrow, 53-48 majority in the 101-member Oklahoma House of Representatives. A switch of only three Democrats to the Republican column would shift control of the chamber.

Several Democrats have indicated this week that they have received feelers from Republican officials, although none of those lawmakers has openly agreed to switch parties or join Republicans in support of a "coalition" speaker of the House. Those lawmakers include Reps. Clay Pope, D-Loyal; Danny Hilliard, D-Sulphur; Bill Mitchell, D- Lindsay, and Charles Gray, D-Oklahoma City.

Despite predicting continued Democratic control of the chamber, Keating also predicted the narrow Democratic majority in the House would enable Republicans to pass legislation that was killed in past sessions.

"We're at 48 (Republican) House members now and 53 Democrats," Keating said. "Just three (Democrats) switching would move it to the Republican column and we could get workers comp passed. We'd get right to work, the income tax cut, much tougher education standards, which I think would be great."

Keating also predicted that Republicans would likely take control of the House within the next two elections thanks to term limits and the redrawing of legislative districts in the 2001-02 session.

"I think term limits and reapportionment will greatly favor Republicans," Keating said.

"And I think a Republican takeover of the House and Senate is certainly a very real possibility as the result of reapportionment and term limits -- 2004, I think, is the end of the line for some of these guys who held us back for nearly a hundred years."

Reapportionment has increased the importance of legislative control next session. With Oklahoma likely to lose one congressional seat, the drawing of congressional boundaries -- and the reapportionment of all state legislative districts -- could impact elections for the next decade.

But Keating predicted Oklahomans would see a more bipartisan approach to legislative redistricting next session than what has been normal in the past thanks to Republican gains this year.

"I think if you're near parity, where we are, you're going to have to try to work it out," he said.

Keating noted that if the Legislature submits a redistricting plan "that is offensive to me," which he then vetoes, the issue would next go to a three-member board for final arbitration. That board consists of Oklahoma Attorney General Drew Edmondson, State Treasurer Robert Butkin and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Sandy Garrett. All three officials are Democrats, but Keating said "the Legislature doesn't necessarily think (the panel) will do what they want."

As a result, he predicted Democratic leaders in the Legislature would try to avoid having the issue taken completely out of their hands and reach a compromise with Republicans.

That may be wishful thinking. While the House is narrowly divided, Democrats still have a firm hold on the Oklahoma Senate, with a 30- 18 advantage in that chamber. And Senate Pro Tempore Stratton Taylor, D-Claremore, has a reputation as a tough-as-nails negotiator regardless of who his opponent may be.

During last year's legislative session, work came to a standstill for several weeks when Senate Democrats and the House Democrats reached an impasse over appropriations. Few expect that situation to improve now that Republicans hold more sway in the House.

But Keating said Democratic control of the Legislature has not derailed his agenda in the past.

"We cut the income tax. We privatized prisons, privatized the university hospital. We reduced welfare after welfare reform by 70 percent, embarked on the largest road construction program ever, established OU-OSU Tulsa, tough environmental laws on swine and charter schools, choice and curriculum rigor," Keating said. "We did that in a bipartisan way, but (Democrats) did it begrudgingly. I think now they're going to do it more willing because there aren't enough of them. The Senate (Republicans) can sustain vetoes and the House, all you have to do is just find three Democrats to come across, and you pass anything and everything."

The bottom line: Keating anticipates a productive year.

"I really am optimistic," he said.

That optimism may not apply as much to Republicans' presidential chances, however. While Keating has long been a supporter of Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush, he said he believes the election will be decided on the basis of absentee ballots in Florida, which won't necessarily benefit Bush.