Letterman cuts into Leno's lead

0 Comments | Deseret News (Salt Lake City), Dec 18, 2004 | by Bill Carter New York Times News Service

If the late-night television competition between Jay Leno and David Letterman really were a war, as it has often been described, it would be the Hundred Years' War. At least. And after a long period of quiet, the latest battle, or at least skirmish, seems to be taking a different turn. David Letterman is making a fight of it on Mondays.

The ratings for late night have consistently favored Leno for about eight years, to a point where it appeared that Letterman had no realistic hope of competing on an even basis again. But that trend seems to have shifted, if only slightly, thanks to Mondays.

Letterman has had some overall ratings growth this season, while Leno has slipped a bit. But it is on Mondays that the change is most noticeable.

At CBS this is being trumpeted as the harbinger of a monumental comeback, while at NBC the latest numbers are being greeted with so- what shrugs. But Letterman's side is making one point aggressively. During the current season, "Late Show" has won relatively often on Monday nights, both among total viewers and in the category that NBC says is the one that really counts, viewers between the ages of 18 and 49. (NBC uses that standard because it sells its commercials based on those ratings.)

Rob Burnett, an executive producer of "Late Show," who also runs Letterman's production company, Worldwide Pants, said he was willing to "play on NBC's terms," referring to the 18-to-49 group. He pointed out that Letterman had beaten Leno in that group six times so far this season on Mondays while losing three.

Overall Letterman has picked up about 380,000 more viewers this season, and Leno, who is still comfortably ahead, has lost about 290,000.

Burnett is not arguing that Letterman's show has become appreciably better. "It has very little to do with the quality of the shows," Burnett said. He also dismisses any idea that Leno may have been affected by NBC's announcement that its other late-night star, Conan O'Brien, would be taking over for Leno in five years.

Instead, he points to what is different about Mondays. CBS has become a powerhouse in prime time on Mondays, especially at 9 p.m., when its "CSI: Miami" has trounced all of NBC's entries. The "CSI" lead-in has spilled over to benefit Letterman.

For Burnett this development represents validation after years of NBC declaring Leno the definitive late-night champ. Burnett had protested far and wide that it was all about the lead-ins, which NBC dominated at 10 p.m. for much of the decade. NBC dismissed this as excuse-making.

"The days when Jay was beating Dave were based solely on the strength of NBC's prime-time lineup and late local news," Burnett said. "As that strength is evaporating, 'The Tonight Show' is finally being exposed."

At least on one night of the week, that is. Leno still wins the other nights, many handily. But with help from "CSI," Letterman is clearly faring better.

"For years people have been saying the late-night wars are over," Burnett said. "'Jay beats Dave because America loves Jay.' Well, do they love Jay less on Mondays?"

NBC declared final victory two years ago and again last year when Jeff Zucker, who was then NBC Entertainment president (he is now president of the NBC Universal Entertainment Group), said flatly, "There is no more late-night war."

And he is not backing off. "I see no evidence to suggest that it's changed," Zucker said in a telephone interview.

Leno's lead remains large enough that his show can legitimately be called dominant. To cite the current numbers as some kind of comeback by Letterman would be unfair, Zucker argued, in the same way that some news accounts had been unfair to NBC's "Today" show over the past several years when its rival, ABC's "Good Morning America," occasionally cut into its traditionally huge ratings lead.

"Jay has won 122 of the last 123 weeks. He has won 38 of 44 nights this season. Instead of being 44 and 0, he's 38 and 6," Zucker said.

The six nights, of course, were Mondays, which circles back to the "Late Show" argument about lead-ins. The producers of "Late Show" certainly believe it has momentum on Mondays. That is the reason it books big names like Tom Hanks, Jerry Seinfeld and Colin Farrell on that night.

Burnett said the big star bookings work because CBS was able to promote those appearances on its heavily watched shows earlier in the night. He noted that some years ago when Letterman booked the sportscaster Marv Albert when he was caught in a sex scandal, the show expected a big ratings boost that never came.

"Without a lead-in to promote these people, you're spitting into the wind," Burnett said.

He noted that Leno had benefited mightily on Thursday nights, on which NBC had television's biggest drama, "ER." (NBC has used Thursdays to book its best guests as CBS now uses Mondays.) But Letterman has made inroads on that night as well, again, Burnett says, because CBS' prime time has become so strong on Thursday.

"The analogy I offer is two restaurants," he said. "One has an exit off the freeway and the other you have to find by the back roads. Suddenly we have an exit, too. But it takes a while for people to realize it's there."