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S.L. hopefuls are swaying 'undecideds'
Deseret News (Salt Lake City), Jul 22, 2007 by Copyright 2007 Deseret Morning News By Doug Smeath Deseret Morning
Depending on how you look at it, the latest poll in Salt Lake City's mayoral race has three winners: Jenny Wilson, Rocky Anderson and "I don't know."
The Dan Jones & Associates survey of 400 Salt Lake City residents, conducted July 17-19 for the Deseret Morning News and KSL- TV, shows Wilson, a current Salt Lake County Council member, leading the pack of candidates with 23 percent support.
But the poll shows that slightly more -- 24 percent -- would "definitely" vote for Anderson, the current mayor, were he to run for re-election, which he has said he will not do. And even with that support, an Anderson candidacy would have to contend with the 48 percent of voters who say they definitely would not vote for him. The survey had a margin of error of 5 percent.
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The biggest plurality is of undecideds: 26 percent of respondents are still unsure about whom they plan to support in the Sept. 11 primary.
"With four major candidates at this stage, we are mostly concerned about our own operations and executing our own plan," Wilson said. "Numbers are always a snapshot in time, and this encourages me that we're on track."
The results show little change in the horse race since Jones' last poll, an early April survey that showed Wilson in first place with 20 percent. The biggest changes have come as candidates have claimed their share of undecideds, who made up 44 percent of the last poll. All the top-tier candidates have gained supporters since the last poll.
Jones predicts intense pavement-pounding as candidates work to sway the remaining undecided voters to their camps. "In August, I look forward to some real hard work," he said.
Second place in the new poll goes to City Councilman Dave Buhler, who has climbed to 19 percent support, compared with 12 percent in April. House Minority Leader Ralph Becker, D-Salt Lake, has moved from 9 percent to 13 percent to tie for third place with former City Councilman Keith Christensen.
"We've been working hard," Buhler said. "I'm optimistic that as our message gets out more, I'll continue to move."
Christensen is the biggest gainer since the last poll, when he pulled only 4 percent support.
"Sept. 11 is the ultimate poll, and I'm confident that as more voters get to know what I offer in leadership and vision for the city, we'll continue to surge," he said.
His gains come after he recently announced he was registering as an independent after years of being a Republican, a move that some saw as politically risky for its potential to be viewed as a midstream image adjustment.
But Jones said Christensen's "declaring himself out of the Republican Party did not have the impact that some might have thought."
The mayor's race is officially non-partisan -- political parties play no formal role in selecting candidates. But party identification is typically a key factor in races in the largely Democratic city. Christensen's party change leaves Buhler as the only Republican among the front-runners.
The new poll asked voters how important political party is to them in the race, and only 27 percent said it played no role. Most - - 40 percent -- said they were more likely to vote for a Democrat, and 28 percent said they preferred a Republican.
Even so, 41 percent described themselves as somewhat or very conservative, while only 36 percent said they were somewhat or very liberal. Meanwhile, most candidates -- Republican, Democrat and independent alike -- have struggled to paint themselves as the most progressive candidate, especially socially.
The preference for Democratic candidates apparently has the race's two Democrats -- Wilson and Becker -- splitting supporters, as 54 percent of Becker's supporters name Wilson as their second choice and 29 percent of Wilson voters like Becker second best.
A full 25 percent of Wilson voters, however, name Christensen as their next favorite, as do 32 percent of Buhler's backers.
Respondents were asked whether they definitely planned to vote for their first choice or whether they simply leaned toward that person, and in that regard Buhler's support seems to be the strongest: 57 percent said they would definitely vote for him. Becker and Wilson had the "definite" support of 44 and 45 percent of their backers, respectively.
The poll also asked respondents, regardless of whom they plan to vote for, what their opinions were of all the candidates. Wilson topped the list of "very" or "somewhat" favorable ratings at 51 percent. Christensen's favorableness was at 46 percent, Buhler's at 41 percent and Becker's at 33 percent.
Buhler was viewed the most unfavorably: 19 percent gave him negative reviews. Christensen's portion of unfavorable impressions was 16 percent, Wilson's 11 percent and Becker's 9 percent.
Of the top tier of candidates, Becker faces the biggest name- recognition hurdle, as 35 percent said they had not heard of him.
E-mail: dsmeath@desnews.com
Copyright C 2007 Deseret News Publishing Co.
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