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Derby favorites must prove selves
Deseret News (Salt Lake City), May 3, 2008 by Jennie Rees The Louisville Courier-Journal
LOUISVILLE, Ky. -- Of the 20 3-year-old horses who will go to the post for today's 134th Kentucky Derby, three have held the sharpest glare of the spotlight, for better or worse.
Big Brown, Colonel John and Pyro are expected to be the only horses sent off at single-digit odds by bettors in the Churchill Downs crowd of 150,000-plus and international simulcast audience. But each of the three also has a major question, which could leave the door open for a long shot.
-- Will this indeed be Big Brown's town?
The Florida Derby winner -- named in honor of Louisville's largest employer, UPS -- is the 3-1 program favorite. But he would also be the first horse in 93 years to win the Derby in his fourth lifetime start, as well as the first to prevail from post No. 20 since 1929.
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Most observers call this a wide-open race, but Big Brown's trainer, Rick Dutrow, portrays it as an open-and-shut case.
"I just haven't seen any other horse with my eyes that can beat him," he said this week.
Dutrow said he's not trashing the competition -- just being candid.
"I read in the paper where it says that he can't lose," he said. "I would never say that. ... If you ask me, 'Rick, do you like your horse?' Yes, I like my horse. You can bet out on him. Is that talking big? I don't see it talking big."
-- Can Colonel John pull rank?
The 4-1 second choice off his Santa Anita Derby victory, Colonel John has never raced on dirt, only on California's new synthetic- surface tracks.
Like Big Brown, he's had only two races this year. And though Street Sense won the roses last year with the same number of preps, he was only the second horse since 1947 to do so.
Trainer Eoin Harty has as much confidence in Colonel John as Dutrow has in Big Brown. He just expresses it differently.
"There's more to the Derby than just the race; you've got to survive this," Harty said. "Survive the walk over, survive the post parade, and then you have to survive the traffic. It's a little bit more than just taking a horse over there on Tuesday afternoon at Delaware."
But Harty acknowledges he'll be surprised if Colonel John doesn't turn in a top effort.
"I think he's coming up to a very big race," he said. "I believe he's a very, very talented horse. If he doesn't show up on race day, obviously something is amiss."
-- Will Pyro fire or smolder?
Pyro was impressive in the early Derby preps, including a win in the Louisiana Derby. Had he won or been a close second in Keeneland's Toyota Blue Grass, he might be vying with Big Brown to be the betting favorite.
Instead he struggled home 10th over the synthetic Polytrack, leaving handicappers in a quandary over him.
But it is a sign of respect -- and perhaps of the vulnerabilities of the 17 other horses -- that oddsmaker Mike Battaglia made Pyro the 6-1 third choice.
Steve Asmussen, who will saddle Pyro and Arkansas Derby runner- up Z Fortune today, knows better than most how difficult it is to achieve Derby success. He trains reigning Horse of the Year Curlin, who won last year's Preakness and the Breeders' Cup Classic but finished third in the Derby behind Street Sense and Hard Spun.
"I feel good about how they're both doing physically," he said of his Derby starters. "That being said, we know how much fortune will have to go our way for either one of them to have success."
Many horsemen believe the field is deeper than the top three contenders.
The filly Eight Belles scratched out of Friday's Kentucky Oaks to take on the boys. Her owner (Rick Porter) and trainer (Larry Jones) came to town with Hard Spun last year.
"The bottom line is the Derby is the biggest race in the world, and we have a horse we think fits in the top three or four," Porter said.
A wet track today could be good news for a bunch of Derby long shots. Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Smooth Air and Denis of Cork have won over sloppy tracks. Pyro ran second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at muddy Monmouth Park. Tale of Ekati, Big Truck and Z Humor hate the mud.
Making their Derby debuts are 34-year-old James Kasparoff (Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bob Black Jack) and 70-year-old Bennie Stutts (Florida Derby runner-up Smooth Air), who train only nine horses between them.
"People ask me if I'm excited," Stutts said. "I'm beyond excited. I'm the 10-year-old kid on the Ferris wheel."
No one has bigger stables than Asmussen and Todd Pletcher, who train at least 200 horses apiece. But sheer numbers haven't won them the race they want most.
"You keep hoping this one might be the right one," said Pletcher, who hopes to end his record 0-for-19 Derby mark with Blue Grass winner Monba or Blue Grass runner-up Cowboy Cal. "But I have tremendous respect for how difficult this race is."
Handicappers not only must try to predict which horses can handle racing 1 1/4 miles for the first time but also how the many prep races held over synthetic tracks will translate to Churchill's sandy loam.
"It's a hard race to predict no matter what the circumstances are, and maybe that makes it a little more difficult," Pletcher said.
